AUD/USD Outlook July 23-27

AUD/USD broke out of range last week , as the Australian dollar  was up  almost two  full cents, closing  at 1.0422. The upcoming week has six releases. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD took full advantage of some weak US numbers, including employment data, to stage an impressive rally.

Updates: Import Prices were released at the end of last week. The indicator jumped 2.4%, well above the market forecast of 1.6%. PPI, a key release, rose 0.5%, a three-month high. The Aussie was down to start the trading week, falling below the 1.03 line. USD/AUD was trading at 1.0291. RBA Governor  Glenn  Stevens Spoke at an event in Sydney. Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI beat the forecast and hit a five-month high. The index came in at 49.5, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector is still not expanding. AUD/USD was down slightly, as the pair was trading at 1.0267. The CB Leading Index rebounded  nicely, gaining 0.4%. The quarterly CPI was also up, as the inflation index jumped 0.5%. Trimmed Mean CPI also increased by 0.5%. AUD/USD was unchanged, trading at 1.0278. The aussie took full advantage of weak US housing data, as the market is again abuzz about possible monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. AUD/USD pushed close to the 1.04 level, as the pair was trading at 1.0388.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

  1. PPI: Monday, 1:30. This quarterly index disappointed in the previous releasing, falling by 0.3%. It was the first decline in the  key inflation  index  since January 2010. The markets are expecting a rebound in July, with an estimate of a 0.3% gain.
  2. Chinese  Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 2:30. This key manufacturing index has been stuck below the 50 level since last October, indicating sustained contraction in the Chines manufacturing sector. Given that China is Australia’s number one trading partner, this PMI can affect the direction of AUD/USD.
  3. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Tuesday, 3:05. The markets always pay close attention to remarks by the RBA head, looking for clues as to future monetary policy. A speech  which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.    
  4. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:00. This important index was a major disappointment in June, as it posted a decline for the first time since January. Will the index improve and  return to positive territory this month?
  5. CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. This quarterly inflation index has shown little or no change since Q3 in 2011. However, the markets are expecting an increase of 0.6% for Q2. This kind of reading would  indicate increased economic activity and could boost the aussie.
  6. Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 1:30.  This index, also released each quarter,  excludes the most volatile goods and services purchased by consumers. The market forecast for July is for a 0.6% gain, identical to the CPI estimate  

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0234. After dropping to a low of 1.0202, the pair climbed sharply up to 1.0444, as it broke through resistance at 1.0402 (discussed last week).  AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0422.

With the strong performance by the aussie this week, we start at higher levels. There is resistance at 1.0874, which has held firm since last August. This is followed by resistance at 1.0718, which last saw action in March. Below, there is resistance at 1.0605, just above the round figure of 1.06. This is followed by resistance at 1.0557, which has held firm since May 2011. Next, the line of 1.0482 is providing weak resistance. It  looks to  be tested if the aussie continues to push upwards.  

The pair is receiving weak support at 1.0402. This line had acted as resistance since May, when AUD/USD went on a sharp slide. Next, 1.0340 is the  providing support.  Below is the line of 1.0230. It has strengthened as the pair is trading at higher levels.

The next line of support  is 1.0174. This is followed by support at 1.0080, which is now protecting the psychologically important parity level. The  parity line is  the next line of support, and  was last tested  in June. The next support level is 0.9917.  This is followed by  support at 0.9860. This  final support line  for now  is 0.9780, which has not been tested since early June.

I am  bearish on AUD/USD.

Australia continues to suffer from the global slowdown, and weaker manufacturing data out of China is bad news for Australia,  as China is the country’s largest trading partner. Recent Austalian data, such as employment, has not been impressive. True, the aussie did rally this week. However, with the turmoil in Europe and increasing concern about the US recovery, many investors will shy away from the risky aussie. Look for volatility in AUD/USD to continue.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.