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The Aussie finally broke out of the wide range and pushed forward to higher ground. The upcoming week features key inflation figures – keys for the next rate moves. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The meeting minutes from the recent rate decision were quite mixed. It seems that the RBA is waiting for more data to emerge. This will be provided now. The surprising rise in import prices suggest that PPI and CPI will be higher, pushing for a rate hike sooner than later.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:AUD USD Chart July 25 29 2011

  1. PPI: Monday, 1:30. The producer price index is a warm up for the CPI later in the week, but it has a strong impact of its own. In Q1, PPI rose by 1.2%, a high pace that exceeded the high expectations. A smaller rise is expected now.
  2. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:00. Most of the 7 indicators that this leading index is based of were already published. Nevertheless, this publication moves the Aussie. Last month saw a tick up of 0.1%. A bigger rise is likely now.
  3. CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. The consumer price index is published only once per quarter, and has a critical impact on rate decisions. In Q1, prices jumped by 1.6%, but now, the RBA is reluctant to raising the rates. A similar rise this time will push the RBA to action, but a smaller rise is expected now. Also note the  Trimmed Mean CPI (known as Core CPI in other countries), which is expected to remain hardly unchanged now.
  4. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. The freeze in credit reported last month weighed on the Australian dollar. More credit means more activity. A small rise is expected now.

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Aussie/USD started off the week with a dip. It managed to overcome the fall to around 1.0580 (mentioned last week), before rising and overcoming the previous range. The 1.0888 line capped it on high ground.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

The  float era high of 1.1012 is is getting closer, just above the round number of 1.10. It remains a strong line of resistance. Below, 1.0920 serves as minor resistance.

1.088 proved to be a strong cap just now, stopping the strong rally. It already had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It was a swing high in May. A move on this line can happen if the next line is decisively broken.

1.0775 was a key resistance level in the past few weeks, and now switches positions. It was the top border of a wider range..  The round number of 1.07 provided support after being broken. It is a minor line.  1.0620 is another minor line..

1.0580 is the next line, which worked as excellent support now. It capped the pair for long days. Its role is minor now after being pierced through on the way down as well as on the way up.  The round number of 1.05 managed to cushion another fall, and remains of high importance..

1.0440 proved to be a very strong support line after being a swing low a month and also recently, although it is slightly weaker now.  1.0390 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April and is weak support now.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315.  It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

With the big relief in Europe, and despite the slowdown in China, the Aussie still has some room to rise. Prospects of a rate hike are the key for future gains, and this depends on the inflation figures this week.

Gregor Horvat sees a challenge of 1.10 quite soon, using Elliott Wave Analysis.

Further reading: