After another week of tense range trading, another busy week expects the Aussie, with employment data being the climax. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The past week saw two important releases: GDP and the rate decision that were OK. The Aussie didn’t fully enjoy them. Will employment numbers boost the currency? Let’s see:
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. This gauge for the housing sector from the Australian Industry Group jumped back above 50 points last month, indicating economic expansion. From 55.8 points last month, it’s expected to edge down.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This is often regarded as an indicator towards the official employment figures due later in the week. The amount of jobs advertised in newspapers unexpectedly fell by 1.2% last month, hurting the Aussie. A small rise is predicted this time.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This survey of 1200 consumers already reflected the recent turmoil last month, with a drop of 7%. The upcoming release should show a small correction – a small rise. This indicator tends to move the Aussie, due to its freshness.
- Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of loans given towards buying homes dropped in the past 6 months, disappointing the Aussie over and over again. This is a direct result of the tightening policy by the RBA – higher interest rates make mortgages less attractive. Another drop is due this time – 1.9%.
- NAB Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by home loans. 550 businesses are polled for National Australia Bank’s survey. This important survey is already off the peak of 19 points it scored two months ago. From 13 points, another small drop is expected now.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. The Australian authorities publish the CPI only once a quarter, so this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, fill the gap. After leaping to 4.1%, expectations fell back to more normal levels – 3.6%, also a result of the rate hikes. It’s expected to remain almost unchanged this time.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The best is kept for last. Last month’s employment figures surprised with a leap of 33,700 jobs, about 50% more than expected. But now, only half of this gain is predicted – 16,100. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4% – a figure which isn’t expected to change this time. Any outcome will rock the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie traded between the0.8240 support line and 0.85 during most of the week. On Friday the pair broke under 0.8240 but the break wasn’t convincing – the pair closed at 0.8231.
Most support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook, but the Aussie is positioned in a sensitive spot. The opening of the new week is critical for the Aussie. If the pair bounces back above 0.8240, the drop can be disregarded. Otherwise, it will open the road to lower levels.
The next line of support is at 0.8066, the area where the Aussie fell to in the big collapse at the beginning of May. Below, minor support is found at 0.7860, which was an area of resistance about a year ago.
Below, the 0.77 line provides strong support – the Aussie fell off from this line at the height of the financial crisis. It fell to 0.7450, which is the next line of support.
Looking up, 0.8477 is still a minor line of resistance, serving as such about 9 months ago. The stronger line of resistance is at 0.8567, which worked as a convincing line of support and resistance recently.
Further up the road, 0.88 worked as a support line, and now serves as a line of resistance. Higher, 0.90 is a round number and also provided support when the pair was trading higher.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The strong fundamentals that we’ve seen last week, and the employment figures which are usually good, should supply the fuel the Aussie needs to overcome the risk aversive trading that is caused by trouble overseas.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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