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The Aussie returned to rising after dropping for two weeks. Will it challenge highs once again? The upcoming week consists of a few events that will move the currency. Here’s an outlook for these event and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now on higher ground.

The meeting minutes showed that the RBA intends to tackle inflation sooner than later, and this gave a boost to the currency. We’ll get general figures about the economy now. Let’s start:

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:AUD USD chart Forecast May 23 27

  1. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. Many of the building blocks that make up this indicator have already been released. Nevertheless, the publication always moves the Aussie. After a slow rise two months ago, the index jumped by 0.6% last month. A more moderate rise is expected now.
  2. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. Also the Melbourne Institute has a similar index, but it is wider – based on 9 indicators. According to MI, the index rose by 0.4% last time. Note that revisions are more common here.
  3. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 1:30. This figure is published almost two months after the period ended, but its scope, of a full quarter, makes it of high importance. Q4 was quite disappointing, with a growth rate of 0.8%, half the early expectations. A drop is likely now.
  4. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. Also this quarterly index disappointed last time with a slow rise of 1.3%. This is one of the best gauges of economic activity, despite its high volatility. A drop now will hurt the Aussie.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie had a “two steps forward, one step backwards” pattern in the past week, that eventually saw it rising. At the beginning of the week, it bounced off the 1.05 line (discussed last week) before challenging the 1.07 line and closing at 1.0656.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

High above but not far anymore, the line of 1.1150 might serve as resistance. The fresh float era high of 1.1012 is already a more definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10.

1.0850 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It proved to be quite strong just now and is of high importance. It’s followed by 1.0775 which was a previous weekly high but was only weak resistance now.

1.07 is a pivotal line once again, where the final battle of the week was seen. It provided some support a few weeks ago. Support is now found at 1.0580, which capped the pair for long days and provided support just now. It will cushion any fresh falls.

The round number of 1.05 is more important support now, after holding the pair from falling. 1.04 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315. It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still far behind.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

With rising prospects of a rate hike hike, a solid economy and stabilizing commodity prices, there’s more room for rises after a long period of consolidation.

Further reading: