After a new rise, the Aussie retreated once again. Are the tables turning on the surging currency? The upcoming week provides important insights about the economy, with the meeting minutes providing a look towards a possible rate hike. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Employment figures were very disappointing in Australia – instead of gaining jobs, the economy lost over 22,000, and this hurt the Aussie significantly. This is an internal worry, different from the external blow the Aussie got from Trichet’s blow to commodity prices.
AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
- Home Loans: Monday, 1:30. The housing sector in Australia has weakened after a strong period of time, due to the rising rates. The past two months saw very disappointing drops, of 5.6% and 6.3%. A correction is expected this time, with a small rise.
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. Australia’s masses of land make car and truck sales an important gauge of the economy. These jumped last month by 3.4%, and are now expected to fall.
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The last rate decision yielded no surprise, with the rates left unchanged at 4.75%. But, we did get a very bullish quarterly report from the RBA, indicating that a rate hike is near. The meeting minutes are therefore expected to reveal the bullishness of Glenn Stevens and his colleagues. This might help the Aussie.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Westpac is one of the largest banks in Australia, and its survey of consumers is considered to be very reliable in feeling the economy. After a rise of 1.2% last month, a smaller rise is expected now.
- Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 1:30. The quarterly index provides a combination of inflation and employment, and its outcome has an impact on rate decisions. After a rise of 1% in Q4, another similar rise is likely now.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute fills the gap that the government leaves by publishing inflation numbers only once per quarter. Last month, MI has shown an annual pace of 3.5%. It’s now expected to be higher, pushing for a rate hike. This come on the background of bigger than expected rise of 1.6% in CPI in Q1.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie continued recovering at the beginning of the week, but after it failed conquering the 1.0850 line (discussed last week), the pair fell and erased its gains.
Technical levels, from top to bottom:
High above in the clouds, the line of 1.1150 might serve as resistance. The fresh float era high of 1.1012 is already a more definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10.
1.0850 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It proved to be quite strong just now and is of high importance. It’s followed by 1.0775 which was a previous weekly high but was only weak resistance now.
1.07 is a pivotal line now, where struggle to recover has been seen now. It provided some support a few weeks ago. More important support is at 1.0580, which capped the pair for long days and provided support just now. It will cushion any fresh falls.
The round number of 1.05 is minor support, or more precisely speaking, an wide extension of 1.0580. 1.04 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April.
A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315. It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still far behind.
I remain bullish on AUD/USD.
Despite the disappointing employment figures, the Australian economy is still strong and is seeing signs of inflation. A hint towards a rate hike in the meeting minutes can provide fuel for fresh gains.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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