AUD/USD Outlook – May 3-7

A very busy week expects Aussie traders with the rate decision is the key event. Here’s an outlook for the 11 Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Producer prices rose by 1%, higher than expected, but consumer prices rose exactly as expected, raising the tension towards the rate decision. Also note  retails sales,  building  approvals and the trade balance. OK, let’s start:

1. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed three months of expansion in this index, similar to manufacturing PMI. Last month, the score was at 50.2 and it could fall below 50 this time, indicating contraction.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. The government’s CPI came out within expectations, so also this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, will probably not show a rise in inflation – last month’s 0.5% will probably be followed by a smaller rise.
3. HPI: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly indicator made strong jumps in the past 3 quarters, including a 5.2% jump last time – exceeding expectations. A milder rise is predicted this time – 3.2%.
4. Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy depends on rising prices. After 11 months of year-over-year drops, commodity prices finally rose by 1.4% last month. Another rise is expected this time.
5. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. Yet again, there’s uncertainty towards this decision. Australian economic indicators, especially inflation, hint a yet another rate hike – the sixth one since the crisis. On the other hand, there are mixed statements from senior RBA figures. There is a higher probability for a pause this time, but this uncertainty means that this will be an exciting event, as it was last month, with the surprise rate hike.
6. AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. According to AIG, the services sector is now expecting contraction. This indicator doesn’t manage to climb above 50 points. At 48.4, it’s predicted to edge up, but not pass the important 50 point mark.
7. Building Approvals: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Contrary to the HPI, this important housing sector figure dropped in the past two months and hurt the Aussie. Rises were expected each time. Also now, a rise is predicted – 0.9%.
8. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. High volatility has been seen in this important consumer-related figure. A rise of 1.2% in February was followed by a drop of 1.4%. This time, a rise is predicted. Sustainable consumer spending is necessary for further rate hikes. A rise of 0.8% is expected.
9. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT, together with retail sales. Australia has a deficit in its trade balance in the past 11 months. After squeezing down to 1.1 billion, the deficit rose back 1.9 billion. A small rise is expected this time.
10. AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. AIG’s last figure completes the picture for the housing sector. After making a leap to 57.7 points, showing bullishness in this sector, the index quickly deteriorated to 48.7 points – below 50. It’s now expected to rise back up above 50 points.
11. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. Three days after the rate decision, this indicator completes the central bank’s forecasts for the next quarter. It could contain hints about the next moves in the tightening cycle.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a drop under 0.9220 and reached 0.9135. It then recovered but couldn’t break the 0.9327 resistance line. The close at 0.9240 is slightly lower than last month.

Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of the Aussie is 0.9220 to 0.9327 – this important resistance line was broken in recent weeks several times, but continues to play an important role.

Higher, 0.9366 is a minor resistance line. It was the peak at the beginning of April. Higher, 0.9405, the 2009 high, continues to be the highest level in sight, at least now.

Looking down below 0.9220, the next line of support is 0.9090, which worked as a support and resistance line many times in the past. Below, the round 0.90 line provides further support, as it was the swing low at the end of March.

Even lower, 0.8735 was December’s low and it’s followed by 0.8567, the lowest spot since October.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

Australian and also Chinese indicators point to a bullish outlook for the Aussie. Another rate hike will add more strength.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the  NZD/USD forecast.

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