AUD/USD had a very exciting week, in which it closed left parity well behind. This week will also be busy for Aussie traders, with employment figures being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Aussie’s ride began with a surprising rate hike, continued with the American QE2 decision and wasn’t bothered by the positive Non-Farm Payrolls in the US. Will the ride continue, or will we see a pause? Let’s start:
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. The amount of jobs advertised in newspapers is a great indicator for the official jobs report due later in the week. Last month saw a rather modest rise of 0.7% in ads. A stronger rise is expected this time, as the Australian economy is doing well.
- NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. National Australia Bank has shown an improvement in business confidence after it almost fell to negative territory. The survey of 350 businesses scored 10 points, and this will probably be followed by a better, more optimistic one this time.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. Westpac bank looks at consumers and also sees rising optimism, although here the index is more volatile. Last month saw a rise of 3.3%. 1200 consumers are expected to show another improvement.
- Home Loans: Wednesday, 00:30. According to last week’s building approvals number, the housing sector is still struggling due to the rate hikes. But according to this figure, the situation has been improving in the past two months, with rises of over 1%. A similar rise of 1.1% is expected now.
- Chinese Trade Balance: Wednesday, 2:00. Australia’s main trade partner, China, has a strong influence on the Australian dollar. We’ve seen that several times. Some see the Aussie as a proxy for investing in the yuan. After the balance of trade dipped to only 16.9 billion last month, China’s international trade surplus is expected to show growth to 25.3 billion this time.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, midnight. As the government releases inflation figures only once per month, this indicator from the Melbourne Institute, fills the gap. Inflation expectations reached a high 3.8% last month, and justified the rate hike. It’s now expected to rise even more.
- Employment data: Thursday, 00:30. The Australian job market is doing great. Last month saw a great surprise with a gain of almost 50,000 jobs. The rise will likely be more modest this time – 20,000. Also the unemployment rate is of envy to other countries, standing at only 5.1%. It’s now expected to drop to 5.0%. Any result will rock the Aussie.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie began struggled with the 0.9917 line at first (mentioned in last week’s outlook) but quickly overcame it and pushed forward after managing to top parity. It stopped only at 1.0183 and finally closed at 1.0162.
The fresh multi-year high of 1.0183 provides immediate resistance. It was tested three times at the end of the week and proved to be very strong. Above, 1.03 is a line of resistance, although its in uncharted areas.
Below, 1.0080 provided support when the Aussie dipped after reaching higher ground, and is now immediate support. AUD/USD parity is already a very strong support line.
Below, 0.9917 was a previous peak and proved to cap the pair recently. 0.9863 was a pivotal line in the past few weeks, and provides minor support now. Also 0.9750 is a minor line.
Looking down, 0.9660 is a very strong line, as it provided strong support for a second week in a row. Lower, 0.9540 was a swing low earlier this month and is the next minor line of support.
Below, 0.9465 remains an important line on the way down, working both as support and as resistance a few weeks ago. The next lines below are 0.9366, which was a peak back in April, and 0.9327, which worked as fierce resistance several times during the past year. The Aussie jumped above this line on a weekend gap.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
Despite the strong gains of over 300 pips, the higher interest rate and the upcoming release of job figures in Australia could push the Aussie even higher.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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