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After a very busy week in the Australian calendar, the upcoming week has mostly second tier releases. Will the Aussie continue pushing forward? Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

aud usd forecast September 13-17

While the pause in the rate hike was widely expected, Australian employment figures gave a significant boost the Aussie, signalling a possible renewal or rate hike. This also depends on the inflation. We’ll get some hints about prices this week.

  1. NAB Business Confidence: Published Tuesday, 1:30. The National Australia Bank has shown that economic confidence has deteriorated in the past 5 months, yet still remained optimistic – a positive score. This time, a rise is expected from last month’s 2 point figure.
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published Wednesday, 00:30. The second survey from a big bank looks at consumers. 1200 consumers that were surveyed showed a better sentiment om the past two months, with rises of 11.1% and 5.4%. Another small rise is expected now.
  3. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published Wednesday, 1:30. Sales of cars and trucks serve as a good gauge for consumption and the whole economy. The past three months were disappointing with squeezes in sales. A recovery is expected this time.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Published Thursday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute fills in the gap for the government by publishing monthly estimations of inflation expectations for the next 12 months. Last month, a drop in expectations was recorded – 2.8% compared with 3.3% beforehand. This indicated yet another pause in rate hikes, as seen last week. A similar figure is expected now.
  5. RBA Bulletin: Published Thursday, 1:00. This quarterly release provides an insight into the economic conditions as seen from inside the central bank. Most of the data has already been released, yet this economic overview still has an impact. A positive outlook is expected.
  6. Philip Lowe talks: Begins talking Friday, 3:45. The RBA Assistant Governor will speak in a conference in Sydney and might possibly hint on further steps from the central bank, such as more moves on the interest rate. His words tend to move the Aussie.

All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar struggled with the 0.9135 line at the beginning of the week, but then finally climbed above the 0.9220 level (mentioned in last week’s outlook) and closed at 0.9263.

The Aussie is now supported by the 0.9220 line which was the peak in August. April low of 0.9135 is now a minor support line, and it’s followed by 0.9080 which provided strong resistance in July and August.

Further below, the round 0.90 line is a minor support line, followed by 0.8870, which was a double top in recent months, and now serves as support.

Looking up, the 0.9327 line accompanies us since October and worked as a strong resistance lines many times since then. A break above this veteran line will send the pair to resistance at 0.9366 which was a stubborn peak during April.

The 2009 peak of 0.9405 is the last visible resistance line on the graph. A break above this line be capped around 0.95, which was last seen in 2008.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

This week’s fresh and great employment figures continues the momentum from the  strong second quarter. It seems that everything is going Australia’s way. Only gloomy risk aversive trading can provide headwinds in the near future.

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