AUD/USD to rise back above 0.81? Two opinions

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The Australian dollar lost some ground but did not lose the bottom as the RBA held its ground. What’s next? Here are two views, from BTMU and from UOB.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

AUD/USD: RBA Likely To Hike In H2 2018; Scope For Further M-Term AUD Gains – BTMU

BTMU FX Strategy Research discusses its outlook for AUD in light of its expected RBA policy path through next year.

Our AUD forecasts are based on the assumption of an RBA rate hike in H2 2018 and we don’t see reason to change that view at this stage

..We see scope for wage inflation to pick up which will encourage the RBA to slowly begin removing monetary stimulus in the second half of next year,” BTMU argues.

BTMU targets AUD/USD at 0.78 by year-end and at 0.80 in Q1 of 2018.

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AUD/USD: Risk Titled To The Upside On Further Commodity Prices Recovery – UOB

UOB Research maintains a bullish outlook on AUD/USD mainly on the ground of expecting further recovery in the commodity prices space.

“Currently, we have a positive view in industrial metals complex, led by Copper and positive view in the energy complex, led by Brent crude oil…

Given that Australia is a key industrial and bulk commodities exporter, the AUD/USD will eventually benefit from the recent recovery in the commodities space. 

Hence, going forward, with the RBA widely expected to stay on hold, the on-going recovery in commodity prices will take over as the key driver for AUD/USD,” UOB argues.

“As such, we maintain our positive outlook for AUD/USD, driven mainly by expectations of further strength in key commodities prices. ” UOB concludes.

UOB current forecast for AUD/USD is 0.81 for 4Q17.

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I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

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