Australian Dollar Outlook – August 10-14 2009

The Aussie discovered new high ground at the beginning of the week, but then went down under. This week’s events will shape its trading. Here’s an outlook for 6 Aussie events, and a technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart and important lines:

Australia’s resilient job market, as well as rising house prices, sent the AUD/USD upwards. Later on, the global dollar strength reached Australia as well. The Non-Farm Payrolls surprise sent it back to where the week began. This week features 6 important events, with a speech by Glenn Stevens as the last and most important event to close the week. Let’s see what awaits the Australian dollar:

1. Home Loans:  Demand in Australia’s housing market is determined by this important figure. Home loans have remained positive throughout 2009, and this trend is expected to continue. After surprising with a rise of 2.2% last time, it’s expected to rise by 2.2% this time.  It’s published on Monday at 1:30 GMT.
2. NAB Business Confidence: The National Australia Bank publishes this indicator of general economic health, and it’s quite reliable. After many negative months, the NAB Business Confidence turned positive last month, scoring 4 points. A positive figure is expected also this time from Australian businesses. Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT.
3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Similar to the previous figure, also the Westpac Banking Corporation has a general economic indicator, but this one focuses on consumers rather than on businesses. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment has been positive in the past two months. Published on Wednesday at 1:00 GMT.
4. Wage Price Index: Half an hour after the former figure is published, this important quarterly indicator is due. The cost of employment is a major factor in prices. It climbed last time by 0.8%, and this figure is predicted to repeat itself this time as well.
5. MI Inflation Expectations: On Thursday at 1:00 GMT, the Melbourne Institute releases another inflation-related indicator that will complete the picture. Current inflation expectations stand at 3.2%, up from 2.8% in the previous month. Will inflation lift it’s head in Australia? Will Glenn Stevens have to raise the interest rate?
6. Glenn Stevens Speech: Well, we might get answers to the previous questions from the man himself. RBA Governonr Glenn Stevens is due to give an official testament before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney. This will begin on Thursday at 23:30 GMT, and may last for quite some time. This annual event is of high importance.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The fall of the US dollar at the beginning of the week helped the Aussie climb up. It was blocked several times at 0.8460. This makes it a new minor resistance line. It didn’t appear on last week’s Aussie Outlook.

Further up, 0.8530, the peak last October, serves as a major resistance line. Even higher, 0.8830 is yet another strong point of resistance. It served as a resistance line last summer.

Looking down (under), 0.8230 is a strong support line. If the dollar will continue to climb, this is the first hurdle it’ll meet. Looking deep down, 0.77 is a major support line. It was a critical point three times in the past, with the last time being just 6 weeks ago.

That’s it. The Australian economy is quite strong, and the Aussie isn’t “afraid” of the greenback’s recovery. Closing the week at 0.8369, it’s just in the middle between two lines. It will be a very interesting pair to follow this week.

Further reading:

• For a broad view on the week’s major events, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian Dollar Outlook.
• For the British Pound, here’s the GBP/USD Outlook.

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