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  • BTC downside capped at $9,700, as per the daily confluence detector.
  • The MACD shows that market momentum reversing from bullish to bearish.

BTC has bounced up from the $10,425 and has encountered resistance at the SMA 20 curve and gone down to $10,480. The 20-day Bollinger Band has stopped constricting, which shows that the price volatility is rising, hinting at an imminent breakout.

BTC/USD daily chapter

BTCUSD daily chart

The MACD shows that market momentum is on the verge of turning from bullish to bearish. This may sound like a death knell to the bulls for now, as a further price drop is expected. How much is the decline going to be? For that, let’s check the confluence detector.

BTC daily confluence detector

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BTC faces an immediate stack of resistance that’s pushing the price down. This stack goes from $10,500-$10,600, and it has the one-day Bollinger Band middle curve, one-day Previous High, Previous Month low, one-day Fibonacci 38.2% and 23.6% retracement levels and one-week Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.

On the downside, the price can drop to $9,700 before it meets a moderate-to-strong support level. This level has the monthly Pivot Point resistance two and one-week Fibonacci 161.8% retracement level.

BTC holder distribution

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Santiment’s BTC holder distribution chart shows that there has been a sharp increase in the number of users holding 100-1000 coins and 10,000-100,000 coins. This has a favorable long-term implication on the price, even if the present outlook seems bearish.