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Our bitcoin price prediction sees BTC trading at its 20-day moving average, currently priced at $33,400 on Coinbase. We can define that as stable for bitcoin, given the gyrations of the past few days.

Flirting with sub $30k levels, at he beginning of the week the top digital asset looked as if it was about to confirm that the bull market was well and truly over.

However, the strength of the bounce from $29k will have stiffened the resolve of bulls, and probably led to Michael Saylor, the chief executive of MicroStrategy, breathing a huge sigh of relief, given that his company has just raised funds to buy more bitcoin.

JPMorgan not convinced by BTC bounce – bear trap?

But as solid as the price recovery may have been, not everybody is convinced, particularly the analysts at JP Morgan. They think bitcoin is overvalued above $35k and as such expect it to trade below that level – possibly as low as $23,000.

“Despite this week’s correction we are reluctant to abandon our negative outlook for Bitcoin and crypto markets more generally. Despite some improvement, our signals remain overall bearish,” the JPMorgan strategists commented.

Led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank’s strategists believe that further selling pressure will hit bitcoin as the lock-up periods on shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin trust end in July.

However, even with the price below $30,000, the strategists do not see a capitulation taking place unless the price touches $25,000.

Negatives and positives: South Africa $3.6 billion crypto theft and El Salvador bitcoin giveaway

Other negative news came from South Africa, where two brothers who owned and operated the Africrypt exchange, have apparently disappeared with $3.6 billion worth of bitcoin.

According to a Bloomberg report, the brothers had reported to investors that a hack had taken place, but not to report it to lawyers or law enforecment.

The first signs of trouble came in April, as Bitcoin was rocketing to a record. Africrypt Chief Operating Officer Ameer Cajee, the elder brother, informed clients that the company was the victim of a hack. He asked them not to report the incident to lawyers and authorities, as it would slow down the recovery process of the missing funds.

But there was bullish news for bitcoin emanating from ElSalvador, where President Nayib Bukele announced on Thursday a distribution of “helicopter money” to the citizenry via an e-wallet holding $30 worth of bitcoin. The move is part of plans by the central American country to kickstart adoption of the cryptocurrency as legal tender, in pursuant of the recently passed law to that effect.

El Salvadoreans will need to download the Chivo e-wallet app and complete the verification using the software’s facial recognition feature.

The news is a promising sign that the legal tender initiative is moving forward despite opposition from some politicians and the World Bank which refused to co-operate with getting the system up and running.

The bitcoin law takes effect on 7 September 2021.

BTC/USD technical analysis: holding above $35k key to further advance

btcusd price chart 25 june 2021

Our bitcoin price prediction sees some weakness going into the weekend, and that is also reflected lower down the market cap order.

The relative strength indicator is on an encouraging 45 – not too hot, not too cold – as the price sits on the near-term trendline going into the volatile weekend trading period.

On the 4-hour chart (see above) bitcoin continues to trade below the 200-day moving average, which it slipped under on 16 June, but is holding the 20MA, as we observed earlier.

The key level for bitcoin to takeout is $35k. If the price can consolidate above that level, then bulls hopes of reaching the hugely importance resistance region around $42,000 could come back into view as a realistic proposition.

It’s obviously a big if, but if the price does again challenge at $40k and breakthrough, then the bull market is definitely back on. However, given the weakness normally seen at weekends, advances beyond $35k could be a stretched.

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