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Bitcoin risks tilted to the downside, recovery to be short-lived

  • Bitcoin settles above $6,300, but the upside momentum is fading away.
  • Naeem Aslam says bitcoin trading range dropped 90%.

Bitcoin is changing hands at $6,336, marginally higher since this time on Thursday. The digital coin No. 1 regained ground above $6,300 handle, however, the upside is limited as long as $6,6360 congestion zone remains unbroken.

According to Naeem Aslam, a chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K, Bitcoin’s average true trading range narrowed to $157 from its January peak of $1,500, which is nearly 90% decrease. Meanwhile, volatility hit historic lows, making it less attractive for speculators. Currently, stocks of Amazon and Apple are more attractive in terms of volatility.

Moreover, the expert believes, that the short-term risks are tilted to the downside as Bitcoin moves toward critical downside support.

“The price of bitcoin is moving towards a critical support level of $6,100, and a break of this is going to open the floor towards the $5,717 mark.”The price of bitcoin is moving towards a critical support level of $6,100, and a break of this is going to open the floor towards the $5,717 mark.”

Bitcoin’s technical picture

On the intraday chart, BTC/USD is supported by $6,310-$6,290 congestion zone that includes SMA50 and SMA100 (1-hour) and a psychological $6,300. Once below, the sell-off may continue towards  $6,200 and more critical $6,060, which is the recent low.

On the upside, once above the initial $6,360, the next bullish target of $6,400 will come into focus. It is strengthened by SMA200 (4-hour) blocks the way towards the upper line of the recent channel at $6.460. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays neutral, while momentum indicator is growing.  

BTC/USD, 4-hour chart

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