After a wild week, the forex market returns to a rather normal week. Major events are the new interest rates from New Zealand and Switzerland, Japanese Final GDP, Australian and Canadian employment figures, American Retail Sales and Trade Balance in both Canada and the US. Here’s the menu for the second week of March:
Monday, March 9th: Japanese Current Account starts the day. Expectations are for a fall from 0.5T Yen to 0.4T. In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%. And in Canada, Housing Starts are expected to join the general weakness of the Canadian economy, with a fall to 144K.
Tuesday, March 10th: British data will be released at midnight: BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the RICS House Price Balance. Later on in the UK, monthly Manufacturing Production is a key indicator, that is expected to fall less than last month, by “only” 1.5%.
In Europe, German Trade Balance is expected to weaken to 10 billion Euros. Another important figure from Europe is the French Industrial Production, which is expected to fall less than last month.
In the US, the main event is a speech by Ben Bernanke. He will be challenged with questions, so swings may occur. Also in America: Wholesale Inventories and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism survey.
And to close the day, Core Machinery Orders from Japan are expected to dive by more than 5%!.
Wednesday, March 11th: Australian Home Loans are still predicted to be on the rise, despite a contracting economy.
In Europe, Germany will provide both PPI (-0.1%) and Factory Orders (-1.9%). Britain will supply it’s trade balance, which should remain stable, at 7.5 billion.
Late in America, Federal Budget Balance will be released, and the deficit is expected to expand to $197 billion.
At 20:00, a new interest rate is announced in New Zealand: The RBNZ is widely expected to lower the rate to 2.75%, a cut of 0.75%. This will make New Zealand’s rate lower than Australia’s. The RBNZ will accompany the rate decision with a Rate Statement and a press conference.
And just before the day ends, Japan will publish the Final GDP, expected to be even worse than the early version, falling 3.5% in one single quarter!
Thursday, March 12th: Australia will start the day with job data: Employment Change is predicted to be negative, -21.2K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to grow from 4.8% to 5%.
Europe will provide the ECB Monthly Bulletin ass well as the German Industrial Production, expected to fall by 3.3%, a slower fall than last month. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will also speak.
In the US, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are both expected to drop slightly. This will seize the attention of traders. Also the weekly Unemployment Claims will be published, currently expected to stay stable.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will publish the new interest rate. The Libor Rate, is expected to be cut almost to zero: from 0.5% to 0.25%. The SNB will issue a Monetary Policy Assessment to explain the situation in Switzerland to the public.
Near the end of the day, also New Zealand publishes the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.
Friday, March 13th: It’s Europe’s turn to publish the monthly Retail Sales, expected to rise (optimistic).
And then, the focus moves to north America. Canada starts with job data: Employment Change is predicted to go down, by 50,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 7.4%, 0.2% more than last month.
And then, at the same time, both American and Canadian Trade Balance figures are released. Both are expected to be negative, but in Canada, which is used to a surplus, will probably show a small deficit, while the US is expected to show -38.4 billion.
Just before the curtain falls on Friday the 13th, the University of Michigan is released the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. This time, the number will be bad, expected to be just under 50, contrary to 56.3 last month.
That’s it for this week. Happy Forex Trading!
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