After a holiday in the US, forex trading this week will be affected by New and Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the second release of GDP. Yup, after a horrible week for the dollar, the scene is dominated by American figures. And of course, there are many interesting figures elsewhere. Let’s see what’s on the menu:
Monday, May 25th: It’s Memorial day in the US, so forex trading will be very thin. It’s also a holiday Spring bank holiday n Britain.
In Japan, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a press conference and will speak about the Japanese economy. In their last communication, the BOJ sent an optimistic message. Also the BOJ Monthly Report will be published.
In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate is expected to improve yet again.
Tuesday, May 26th: New Zealand starts the day, with Trade Balance and quarterly Inflation Expectations. Will New Zealand’s economy keep up with the Australian one?
Nationwide HPI is the first significant figure for the Pound, after GBP/USD had a rollercoaster week.
In Europe, German Final GDP, Current Account, and Industrial New Orders are all expected to improve.
American CB Consumer Confidence is expected to rise sharply, from 39.2 to 42.1, indicating a strong improvement in Americans’ sentiment.
Near the end of the day, Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes might show more optimism. But Trade Balance is still predicted to show a deficit in Japan’s export-oriented economy.
Wednesday, May 27th: In Australia, Construction Work Done figure is expected to fall significantly. Given other Australian figures, this could surprise. In its neighbor, New Zealand, NBNZ Business Confidence will shake the kiwi.
German Prelim CPI is expected to show continuing deflation, and might hurt the EUR/USD rally. British Mortgage Approvals are expected to rise.
American Existing Home Sales are expected to rise to 4.65 million. Though American housing is off the bottom, recovery is still slow.
Near the end of the day, Japanese Retail Sales are expected to continue their free fall, hurting hopes for recovery.
Thursday, May 28th: Austrlian Private Capital Expenditure is expected to show a quarterly fall of 5%. This might stop the Aussie’s rise.
Swiss Trade Balance is expected to remain positive, but hardly above the water. German Unemployment Change will be of interest for the Euro.
In Britain, CBI Realized Sales are expected to fall. This might have a serious impact on the GBP/USD.
American Durable Goods Orders, which have disappointed last time, are expected to rise by 0.1%. Core Durable Goods Orders are still expected to fall. At the same time, Unemployment Claims are expected to stay stable, at 635K. American employment hasn’t improved since the layoffs in Chrysler.
New Home Sales, the complementary figure for Monday’s Existing Home Sales figure, are expected to rise to 363K.
In New Zealand, Building Consents are a key figure for the economy. Last time, they took a deep dive. Will this continue?
Thursday is an interesting day in oil prices as well: OPEC Meetings are held in Vienna. They will probably keep the output steady, after oil prices have significantly risen lately. Also Crude Oil Inventories will be published.
Friday, May 29th: Japan will start the day with a handful of important figures: Household Spending is predicted to continue falling, Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show deep deflation and only Prelim Industrial Production is expected to recover, rising by 3.3%.
New Zealand’s Annual Budget Release will draw attention. Remember how Alistair Darling gave a blow to the Pound?
In Europe, German Retail Sales are expected to rise for a change. CPI Flash Estimate is expected to stay low – at 0.2%. Also note a speech from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.
Canadian Current Account is predicted to fall. After the Canadian dollar won its important week, this week features only the Current Account.
For the main course, American Prelim GDP is predicted to be better than the Advance GDP. In the first release for the first quarter, American Gross Domestic Product showed a dive of 6.1%. The revised figure is estimated to show a fall of “only” 5.5%.
It isn’t over yet: Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment are both expected to improve.
That’s it. Have a great week!
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