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Forex Daily Outlook – June 3rd 2009

Australian GDP, British and American PMI and Ben Bernanke’s testament are the main indicators for today. And there are lots more. Let’s see what’s on the menu…

The day starts with a major indicator: Australia’s GDP is published. GDP is expected to have fallen by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2009. If expectations come true, this will mean that also Australia joins the recession club, after the economy dipped for the first time in the last quarter of 2008.

For a special coverage of the Aussie, read:  Will Australia go Down Under? Aussie Outlook

In Europe, there are a few figures: Final Services PMI is expected to stay stable at 44.7. PPI is expected to fall by 0.9%. Deflation rules in Europe. Revised GDP is predicted to show no change from the initial call, and remain at a fall of 2.5%. Since this is a late figure, it won’t have too much influence.

In Britain, Services PMI is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.4. If the figure surprises and passes the 50 mark, this means optimism in the UK.

For a special coverage of the Pound read:    Britain’s Got Talent.

In the US,  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to fall by 525K jobs, somewhat worse than last month’s fall of 491K. This figure swings a lot, and despite its importance, it’s not really an indicator for the NFP on Friday.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise cautiously from 43.7 to 45.1 This is the complementary release to the Manufacturing PMI published earlier this week and was better than expectations. Will this surprise as well?

The PMI release will be overshadowed by a testament by Ben Bernanke. What will he tell the House? Will he be optimistic or pessimistic? His careful words will be closely watched.

Also in the US, Factory Orders are predicted to turn positive, and rise by 0.7%. Well, this is optimistic…

Just before midnight GMT, Japanese Capital Spending is expected to drop by 27.1%. It’s hard to get good news from Japan these days.

Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.