Britain’s Got Talent? Pound Outlook

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After swinging and dancing, the British Pound finished the week almost 300 pips higher. With no significant technical hurdles, only a comeback of the dollar or bad British data can stop it. And what data awaits the Pound? Here are 5 key events to watch for: Halifax HPI, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, PPI and of course – the interest rate decision. The first week of June is very promising..

GBP/USD finished the week higher, closing at 1.6187. It already touched the 1.62 mark during Friday’s trade. As aforementioned, technical resistance waits for the British Pound only at around 1.67.

For a complete roundup of this week’s events in the British Pound, read this post: British Pound continues North.

Economic Indicators for the Pound

  1. Halifax HPI: This house price index is one of the most regarded indicators. British real estate was one of the most prominent causes for the current crisis in Britain. Last month, it fell 1.7%, and this time it’s expected to “smooth” its fall and drop by only 1%. It will probably be published on Monday.
  2. Manufacturing PMI: This purchasing manager’s index indicates the mood of Britain’s industry. It’s on a constant rise, but still in the pessimistic zone – under 50. It’s expected to rise from 42.9 to 44.1. Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT.
  3. Services PMI: On Wednesday, the complementary figure for Monday’s Manufacturing PMI will be published. It’s expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.4, on the brink of turning optimistic…
  4. Interest Rate decision: This is one of the most important events for every currency. On Thursday at 11:00 GMT, the Pound will shake. Official Bank Rate in Britain is predicted to stay at the historic low of 0.5%. So, if there’s no surprise with the interest rate, the focus will be on the MPC Rate Statement. The focus has been on the statement for quite some time. In previous month’s the BoE has declared the program. The government has pledged 75 billion Pounds and recently enlarged the program to 125 billion. If another enlargement is announced, the Pound will fall. It’s important to notice the wording of the statement.
  5. PPI Input: Producer Price Index indicates changes in at the manufacturing level. According to CPI figures, Britain still doesn’t suffer from deflation.PPI, published on Friday, should should that it isn’t close: it’s expected to rise by 0.8% after falling by 1% last month. If this figure surprises, the Pound will go wild. Non-Farm Payrolls are published on Friday, so the market will be very shaky anyway…

As we’ve last week, GBP/USD was mostly influenced from the drastic moves in the dollar. The greenback moved up and down across the board, on risk aversion (for example North Korean Bomb) and on risk appetite, when good figures were published in America.

For a general overview of all the week’s major indicators, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.

In past two weeks, the British Pound has supplied wild moves, even rollercoasters. I’ll keep on updating on this fascinating currency…

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.