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GBP USD Forecast

British Pound Outlook – August 17-21 2009

The British Pound moved down this week, and returned to the previous range, below 1.6660, despite good employment figures. There are 6 important British releases in the upcoming week that will impact the Pound. Here’s an outlook on these events and a technical analysis for GBP/USD.

This GBP/USD graph includes important support and resistance lines:

GBP/USD August 2009

There aren’t too many major American releases this week, so GBP/USD will mostly move by the British publications. Let’s review 6 major releases this week in Britain:

  1. Rightmove HPI: It’s the earliest House Price Index in the UK, and it’s also very early in the week – released on Sunday at 23:00 GMT, when some traders are still asleep. This index went up and down in recent months, rising 0.6% last time after falling 0.4% the month before that. It will have an early impact on the British Pound.
  2. CPI: It’s Britain’s turn to release the Consumer Price Index figures. While in the US and Europe prices have slightly fallen, they seemed to be rising nicely in Britain. But Britain might also fall into deflation. The figures released on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT will tell us. CPI is expected to rise by 1.6% (annually adjusted) after 1.8% last time. Core CPI is also predicted to slow down – from 1.6% to 1.5%. They’re continuing the path of squeezing, that began at the beginning of the year.
  3. MPC Meeting Minutes: Why did Mervyn King expand the treasury buying program? In the recent rate decision, the interest rate remained at the lows of 0.5%, but the expansion of the Quantitative Easing program was a big surprise that hurt the Pound. The protocols of the last BOE decision will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT, and this will shed light on British bankers’ thoughts of the economy.
  4. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: The Confederation of British Industry surveys 550 manufacturers and gets their prospects for the future. Contrary to other indicators, this figure has been going down and disappointing economists in every release in 2009. Last time it scored -59 points, and it’s predicted to rise to -50 this time. Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
  5. Public Sector Net Borrowing: This reflects the money that the government lends in order to fund its activity. This time it’s expected to squeeze to almost nothing, after printing 13 billion last time. Less lending could be a good sign for the British economy. Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT, it’s overshadowed by the Retail Sales, published at the same time.
  6. Retail Sales: Last but not least, this all-important indicator is released on Thursday at 8:30 GMT and is expected to rise only by 0.4%. Last month, British Retail Sales surprised by jumping by 1.2%. In the month before, it disappointed and fell. So, the outcome can vary, and so will the impact on British Pound…

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound began the week with a big fall, from 1.67 down to the low 1.64s. After trading a few days between 1.64 to 1.6550, GBP/USD made a small move upwards and peaked at 1.6664 – reinstating the old resistance line! It bounced off that line and finally closed at 1.6539.

So, the 1.70 zone that was achieved two weeks ago looks very far now, and looked like a temporary break. The surprising American figures sent the Pound back to the “range”. For the Pound bulls, 1.7040 is the next resistance line, and further north 1.74 is another spot. But that’s far out.

As aforementioned, 1.6660 is reaffirmed as a strong resistance. Looking down, this week’s support line was at 1.64, which serves as minor support. Further down, 1.62 gave support in recent months. For the big Pound bears, 1.58 is a major support line.

Following last week’s sentiment, the direction continues to be down for the British Pound.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.