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AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook – August 24-28 2009

The Australian dollar began the week with a false break downwards, and then got back to trading in a narrow range. Here’s an outlook for 4 important Australian releases this week, and a technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD forex chart with support and resistance lines inside:

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Last week’s mixed messages from the RBA’s  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes left the Aussie in a narrow range. This week doesn’t feature the really big events, but still contains figures that will move the Aussie. Let’s review these indicators:

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Cars and trucks are a major product consumed in Australia. The change in consumers’ attitude towards buying cars impacts the economy. While this isn’t the most important release, the timing, on Monday at 1:30 makes it more important – it’s very early in the week, and no other figures are released at this time. This indicator showed a nice rise of 5.7% last time. Will the trend continue?
  2. Construction Work Done: This figure reflects the capital value of construction work done in the land down under. This housing figure is released every quarter, making each release important. After disappointing with a fall of 3.7% last time, it’s expected to continue falling, this time by 2.7%. The summer months in Australia are stronger…Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT.
  3. CB Leading Index: The Australian Conference Board builds this index out of 7 economic releases. Despite being based on numbers that have already been released, this combined “magic number” is an important overview of the economy. Last time it surprised by falling by 0.1% after three positive months. This time it’s expected to resume the positive trend. Published on midnight between Wednesday and Thursday.
  4. Private Capital Expenditure: This is the most important release this week, made on Thursday at at 1:30 GMT. Private businesses are quick to move on changes in the economy, and give a good indication on the future. Similar to the Construction Work Done figure, it’s a quarterly release – something that makes it important. Last quarter, the  Private Capital Expenditure fell by a whopping 8.9%, much worse than expected, and very surprising considering the other Australian factors which are strong. This month, another fall is predicted, but only by 4.7%.

This week’s American figures will impact AUD/USD, especially the revised GDP and the Durable Goods Orders.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD began last week by tumbling down under the 0.8230 support line. It fell as low as 0.8160 before bouncing back. This was a false break. The 0.8230 resumed its role as a support line later on in the week.

So, despite being hurt, I still mark 0.8230 as a support line. Below that, only 0.77 is a major support line. It served as both a resistance line and a support line, 3 times in the past year.

Looking up, the Aussie didn’t get close the 0.85 major resistance line. AUD/USD peaked at 0.84 towards the end of the week before retreating and closing at 0.8345.

0.85 remains strong. Further up, 0.8830 is another resistance line, but it’s far away.

All in all, last week’s range trading made this technical analysis very similar to the one in last week’s Aussie Outlook. The range trading will probably continue this week.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.