Home EUR/USD Outlook – October 12-16 2009
EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – October 12-16 2009

EUR/USD had a good week, regaining the losses of the previous week, and closing higher up its trading range. This week’s ZEW Economic Sentiment, inflation figures and other data will impact EUR/USD. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in the Euro-zone, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

For the latest outlook, check out the section:  EUR/USD  Forecast.

EUR/USD forex chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:

EUR/USD Forex chart

Absolutely no surprises in the rate decision last week kept the Euro in the trading range. Let’s see the menu for this week:

  1. German WPI: This price index measures goods sold by wholesales. Though it isn’t a major release, it  precedes the CPI release by a few days. In addition, it’s the only release on Monday, standing out in a light calendar. German WPI surprised by rising by 0.7% last month. It’s now expected to rise in a moderate pace of 0.2%.
  2. French CPI: Europe’s second largest economy has seen prices go up and down in previous months, without a clear direction. After a rise of 0.5%, French CPI is expected to fall by 0.1% this time. Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT, just before more important releases.
  3. ZEW Economic Sentiment: The ZEW institute from Germany publishes this highly regarded survey of investors and analysts. Its German indicator is considered more precise than the all-European figure. Both are published at the same time – Tuesday at 9:00 GMT.The German sentiment has been positive since April, reach a high score of 57.7 last month. It’s expected to edge up to 58.8 this month. The all-European number is slightly better, at 59.6, and is expected to pass the 60 mark this time.
  4. Industrial Production: After falling in the last two months, Europe’s industrial production is expected to rise neatly – 0.9% this time. Expectations are built on the German and French releases that were already made earlier. Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT.
  5. ECB Monthly Bulletin: This collection of statistical data is what ECB policymakers see when they make decisions. These reports also contain analysis for future economic conditions and the future policy. Released on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
  6. CPI: Despite being released after the German and French CPI releases, this inflation number is still very important and does surprise economists occasionally. Europe’s deflation is no secret: CPI fell in the last three months. Last month’s 0.2% fall (annually adjusted) is predicted to be followed by a 0.3% drop this time. A rate hike won’t be seen soon. Core CPI is positive, but prices are hardly rising. Core CPI is expected to edge down from 1.3% to 1.2% this time. Released on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
  7. Jean-Claude Trichet speaks: ECB President moved the markets just last week, and he’ll get a chance to do that again, in a speech called “Lessons from the Crisis”. He’ll start talking on Thursday at 11:25 GMT.
  8. Trade Balance: Similar to previous data, also the all-European trade balance is released after the German and French releases. Yet again, this number was very surprising last time – a surplus of 6.8 billion was reported, more than 5 times the expectations. This time, economists predict a rise to 7.9 billion.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro made a nice and steady rise during the week. It climbed up to 1.4764, easily breaking the minor resistance line of 1.4720 from last week’s EUR/USD Outlook. It then slipped back down before climbing as high as 1.4817. EUR/USD finally closed at 1.4731.

EUR/USD is closing a month of range trading, since it broke the 1.4444 long-standing resistance line. 1.4444 continues to be the strong support line of this range. Below that, support is found at 1.42.

Looking up, I’ve modified the resistance next resistance line to be 1.4850, which is the peak of this current range. This is a minor resistance line at the moment. Above that, 1.4908 looks stronger.

I continue to be slightly bullish on the Euro, which enjoys a solid recovery. Another week of range trading is quite possible before making another move up.

Like last week, I bring a few excellent technical analyses for this popular pair:

  • Moihammed Isah discusses the upside bias of EUR/USD and looks at the 1.4844 level.
  • Casey Stubbs writes about the caution needed before the next bullish move.

Further reading in Forex Crunch:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.