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Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – October 19-23 2009

Looking for the latest outlook for this week? Check the full section:  USD/CAD Forecast.

The Canadian dollar had a good start to the week, getting closer to parity, but was thrown back on weak data. This week is important for the loonie, with a rate decision and 6 other events. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in Canada, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD forex chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

USD/CAD Forecast October 2009

Bad Manufacturing Sales hit the loonie hard. Stable inflation didn’t help. Just as it made big steps to parity, it was thrown back. Apart from the rate decision, retail sales stand out. Let’s see what’s awaiting the Canadian dollar:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Money flow into Canada fell down to 0.35 billion, almost negative last month, indicating less trust in the Canadian economy. This time, it’s expected to rise back up to 1.23 billion. Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT.
  2. Leading Index: 10 economic indicators,most of them already released make this composite index. It rose in the last two months, surprising with a neat rise of 1.1% last time. This time, it’s expected to rise by 0.8%. Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
  3. Wholesale Sales: At the same time as the previous figure, Wholesale Sales are one of the more positive indicators, rising last time by 2.8%, and surprising economists month after month. Retailers seem optimistic as they buy more goods from wholesalers.
  4. Rate decision: Canada’s interest rate is published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. No surprises are expected regarding the Overnight Rate which is expected to remain at 0.25% once again. The more interesting part of this event is the BOC Rate Statement, which is predicted to send some hints about future policy, hinting when in 2010 rates will rise. t’s not soon anyway, despite good employment figures.
  5. Retail Sales: Canadian retail sales dipped last month and disappointed. Growth is expected to return this time, at a rate of 0.2%. Core retail sales also fell last time, by 0.8%, and are expected to rise even more – by 0.5%. This all-important consumer related figure is due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
  6. BOC Monetary Policy Report: Two days after the rate decision, the BOC adds more information by exposing its point of view regarding the economy and future rate decisions. A comment on employment will be the most important part. Published on Thursday at 14:30 GMT.
  7. BOC Press Conference: Following the release of the monetary policy report, Mark Carney, the BOC governor, will hold a press conference to discuss it, and answer questions by reporters. This is due on Thursday at 15:15 GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Following the previous’ week’s excellent employment figures that pushed USD/CAD lower, also this week began positively for USD/CAD, as it fell under 1.04 and then went gradually down up to 1.0206. But then it jumped back up, peaking at 1.0435 before closing at 1.0368.

The close support and resistance lines are modified from last week’s Canadian dollar outlook. Looking down, I now mark 1.02 as a support line, following the big bounce. It also worked as a support line in 2008. Below,, parity is the obvious support line.

Looking up, 1.04 is an area of resistance that was created this week. Above that, the 1.0625 resistance line remains intact.

I continue to be bearish on USD/CAD. It might take more time to parity, but the Canadian economy is moving forward. Also the higher oil prices help. TheLFB wrote an interesting article about crude oil and the Canadian dollar.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.