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EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – November 2-6 2009

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The Euro had a bad week, losing ground that took a long time to conquer. A rate decision is the highlight of this week’s events. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it.


Last week’s good employment figures from Germany supported the Euro in the struggle with the dollar, after the  initial  panic. On the other hand,  retail sales hurt it. Apart from the rate decision, this week’s German Factory Orders will stand out. Let’s review the events:

  1. Final Manufacturing PMI: European Manufacturing PMI rose for the first time above the crucial 50 point line according the initial, flash release. This means that purchasing managers’ are expecting expansion in economic activity. The number is expected to be confirmed in the final release made on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
  2. Final Services PMI: Completing Monday’s release, the Final Services PMI is due on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. This indicator has already been above 50 in the last month. According to the initial release, it has pushed forward to 52.3. This number is expected to be confirmed.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index is negative, similar to the consumer’s price index (CPI). After a fall of 0.4% last month, a drop of 0.3% is predicted this time. Note that only a big surprise will impact the markets since Germany and France already released their PPI. Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
  4. Retail Sales: Also here, the release is after Germany and France. But since it happens less than three hours before the rate decision, it can be move the nervous markets. After 4 months of squeezing, retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% this time. Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT.
  5. Rate decision: Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate at 1%. Deflation in Europe is too strong to put pressure for a rate hike. The focus will be, as in previous months, on the words at the ECB Press Conference. This probably won’t include rate moves, but it will include the ECB’s view of the economy, and the recovery.
  6. German Factory Orders: Europe’s largest economy showed strong growth in factory orders in the past 4 months. Last months it was relatively modest – a rise of 1.4%. This time, it’s expected to rise by 1%. Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT.

This week also features a lot of major American releases, with the Non-Farm Payrolls being the climax on Friday. These will also impact EUR/USD strongly, as the positive GDP in the US moved the pair.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD was the first pair to feel the fear. It took it below the support line of 1.4842. It didn’t recover.  It went as low as 1.4683, then recovered on the positive American GDP, but fell again to close at 1.4714.

1.4842 serves as a resistance line now. It’s clearly seen in recent trading, both from the upside and the downside. Looking further up, I’ve marked the high point of 1.5062 as the next resistance line. It didn’t appear in last week’s EUR/USD Outlook. Above that, 1.5144 capped the pair when it was going up last year.

Looking down, I’ve marked this week’s low of 1.4683 as a support line. It’s a minor one. Below, 1.4444 served as a resistance line for a very long time, and now works as a major support line.

I’m now neutral on the pair. As long as economic recovery was proceeding slowly, Europe’s steady progress seemed convincing enough. But when fear sweeps the markets, the European currency doesn’t have the fuel for an uphill run.

This popular pair receives many interesting articles on the web. Here are my favorites:

Further reading:

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    Yohay Elam

    Yohay Elam

    Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.