EUR/USD Outlook – October 26-30 2009


Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

EUR/USD pushed above the important 1.50 line, but has it run out of fuel? This week features 9 important releases in the Euro-zone, including inflation and unemployment numbers. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in the Euro-zone, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD forex chart with support and resistance lines marked on it:. Click to enlarge:

EUR/USD Forecast

Falling prices in Europe, expressed by the German PPI, weighed on the Euro, while Friday’s good PMI figures helped it. Deflation is high on this week’s agenda. Let’s see what events expect us this week:

  1. GfK German Consumer Climate: This survey of 2000 consumers is highly regarded by economists. It has been on the rise in the past four months, reaching 4.3 points last time. It’s expected to rise to 4.5 this time. Published on Monday at 7:00 GMT.
  2. M3 Money Supply: This indicator shows the amount of money in circulation, and is directly correlated with inflation. Growth in money supply has slowed down in the past 6 months, disappointing the markets. Also this time, growth is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.1% – another sign of deflation. Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT.
  3. German Prelim CPI: Speaking of inflation, the continent’s largest economy publishes this early indicator during Wednesday, in all the German states. Deflation is a serious problem in Europe, and only a big rise in prices will push the Euro higher. After falling by 0.4% last time, it’s expected to rise by 0.1% this time.
  4. German Unemployment Change: The German job market has been better than expected in the past 6 months, showing a drop in jobless people in the last three months, as the elections in Germany got closer. Expectations remain pessimistic, and the number of unemployed people is expected to rise by 17K. Published on Thursday at 8:55 GMT.
  5. Consumer Confidence: This consumer survey asks 2300 people about their economic confidence. The score is still negative, expressing general pessimism, but is improving during the year. This time, it’s predicted to rise from -19 to -17. Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT.
  6. Axel Weber speaks: Axel Weber is the president of the German Bundesbank, and one of the strongest people around Jean-Claude Trichet. His words usually move the markets. He’ll be speaking in Berlin on Thursday at 11:10 GMT.
  7. German Retail Sales: This important economic figure has been going up and down in recent months. After a nice rise of 0.7%, it fell by 1.5% last month. A rise is expected this time, continuing the see-saw behavior. This major economic indicator is published on Friday at 7:00 GMT.
  8. CPI Flash Estimate: After Germany’s Prelim CPI, the initial number for all of Europe is released on Friday, at 10:00 GMT. Deflationary Europe isn’t expected to see a rise in prices also this time. A fifth consecutive fall in prices is predicted also this time, making a rate hike in Europe very futuristic.
  9. Unemployment Rate: The all-European unemployment rate is based on figures from other countries, hat have already been released. Still, this number is important to Europe’s policy makers. Unemployment rate is rising steadily in Europe, edging up 0.1% each month. Also this time, it’s predicted to rise by 0.1%, from 9.6% to 9.7%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Continuing the slow uphill trend, EUR/USD rose by about 170 pips this week. At first, it struggled under 1.50, but on Wednesday, it managed to pass it, and even peak at 1.5060 before closing just above 1.50.

Support and resistance lines haven’t changed from last week’s EUR/USD outlook. Looking up, the 1.5144 support line remains valid. This was a resistance line at the beginning of 2008.

Looking further above, 1.5283 is the next resistance line. It served as a strong support line during last summer, before the Euro collapsed with the global crisis.

Down below, 1.4842 remains a support line, after holding as a resistance line in recent weeks. Further down, 1.4444 worked as a strong resistance line, and is a major support line now.

Check out Casey Stubbs’ recent analysis for EUR/USD.

My sentiment is still slightly bullish on the Euro. Currently, an acceleration in prices is needed to push the Euro higher. Deflation is weighing on it.

Further reading:

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    About Author

    Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.


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    5. Looking up, the 1.5144 support line remains valid

      Please explain…EUR/USd is trading around 1.5000 it never went above 1.5100 this year so how come it is a support line??

    6. Chaudhry, I marked 1.5144 since it was a support line that EUR/USD rested on for a few days before continuing the uphill move in the summer of 2008. It’s a minor resistance line.

    7. fx compass on

      thanks for the analysis,

      Was also having doubts about the euro staying above 1.5000, and it did break down heavily today.

      A test of the 1.4849 support is very likely. But, I’m waiting to see the effects of the US GDP on Thursday.

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