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Forex Daily Outlook – November 4th 2009

A very busy day expects forex traders with a rate decision in the US being the highlight of the day. There are important figures from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up:

British Nationwide Consumer Confidence is expected to edge up from 71 to 72 points, and show that Brits are still confident about their economy.

Later in Britain, Services PMI is predicted to edge up as well, from 55.3 to 55.4 points. After Manufacturing PMI surprised with a big jump on Monday, it could be higher here as well.

Tensions towards the rate decision on Thursday grows. For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD Forecast.

The rate decision yesterday didn’t help the Aussie, that slipped below the support line. Today, Building Approvals are expected to rise by 2.4% after a 0.1% drop last time. At the same time, Retail Sales are published, and are no less important: they’re expected to post a 0.5% rise, less than last month’s 0.9% jump.

For more on the Aussie in this busy week, read the AUD/USD Forecast.

In Japan,, a speech by BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is due. At the end of day, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are published. Big news isn’t expected.  It seems that the Yen moves mostly by risk aversion / risk appetite than by Japanese economic indicators.

In Europe, PPI is predicted to drop by 0.3%, after rising last time. Deflation is a problem in Europe. EUR/USD failed to breach the resistance line on Monday, and is now in lower places.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

In Canada, BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will speak today, and might help the loonie  regain some  of its losses. Employment figures await the Canadian dollar later this week. Check out the USD/CAD Forecast for more.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the “small Non-Farm Payrolls”, is expected to show a loss of 180K jobs, less than last month’s drop of 254K jobs. Only a positive number will significantly move the markets. In such a case, the dollar will fall.

Later, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 50.9 to 51.6 points. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the twin indicator surprised with a great leap.

Ben Bernanke is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged.The Federal Funds Rate is predicted to stay at the rock bottom rate that was set in December. No rate hike is expected soon. Due to the doubts about the recovery, and the big bankruptcy of CIT, an expansion of the bond buying program could happen. In March, such a decision sent the dollar down for a very long time. Will the FOMC statement bring any drama?

In New Zealand, quarterly Employment Change is expected to drop by 0.3%, following last quarter’s 0.4%. Such a figure would justify Alan Bollard’s decision not to raise the interest rates. The accompanying figure,Unemployment Rate, is expected to jump to 6.4%, from last quarter’s 6%. NZD/USD has lost a lot since the rate decision, that didn’t meet expectations.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.