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AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook – April 12-16 2010

The Aussie finished an exciting week higher. The upcoming week contains a few interesting Australian figures and also one Chinese release that will move the Aussie. Here’s the outlook, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Aussie forecast

Glenn Stevens pushed the Aussie higher with a fifth rate hike to 4.25%. The second event was within expectations – job figures were OK – no surprises meant no break of the resistance line. Let’s start the review:

  1. Home Loans: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This indicator has been painful for the Aussie in recent months. Loans dropped faster than expected, including an unexpected plunge of 7.9% last month. These drops go hand in hand with the fall in building approvals. A small drop of 0.9% is expected this time.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. The National Australia Bank showed a rise in this survey of 350 businesses. The score of 19 points reached last month will probably be followed with a weaker score this time.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Westpac Banking Corporation surveys 1200 consumers for this indicator. After a few months of strong changes, this index edged up by 0.2%. Another small rise is predicted this time.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. This figure by the Melbourne Institute is important as the government releases an official CPI release only once a quarter. Inflation has been under control according to this indicator – expectations stand on 3.2%. A similar number is expected this time.
  5. Chinese GDP: Published on Thursday at 2:00 GMT. China is Australia’s main trade partner, so the demand from China has a strong impact on the Aussie. GDP is expected to accelerate from an annual rate of 10.7% to 11.7%, numbers that aren’t seen in the West. The number relates to the first quarter of 2010.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a rise above 0.92. Near the end of the week, the pair challenged the 0.9327 line and closed right at this point.

At this critical point, 0.9327, the Aussie is at crossroads. If it really manages to cross it, it’s a big victory. This line has sent the Aussie down almost at each attempt. I’ve added a higher line on top of last week’s outlook.

Looking up, a confirmation of a move above 0.9327 will lead towards testing the 2009 high of 0.94. This important line is followed by 0.95 which was a resistance line in the past.

Below, 0.9190 is a minor support line. It’s followed by a more significant support line at 0.9090. Even lower, 0.8980 provided strong support in recent weeks, and is another line of importance.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

The fresh rate hike and the good economy pave the way for more gains. Looking at technicals, a confirmation of the break is necessary for more strength.

Further reading:

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.