Home Forex Weekly Outlook – August 1-5
Majors, US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook – August 1-5

Rate decision in Australia, UK, the Euro-Zone and Japan, US Non-Farm Employment Change and other important employment figures are at the top of our list this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers awaiting us.

Last week the debt ceiling crises deepened as U.S. House Speaker  the republican John Boehner failed to round up sufficient support for his plan to cut the federal deficit and raise the U.S. debt ceiling forcing him to postpone the scheduled vote in congress just 4 days from the “drop dead date”. This caused Boehner substantial embarrassment since he did not succeed to convince many of his own party to go along with his agenda. Will a breakthrough be reached before the deadline?

Let’s start

  1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The  U.S. Manufacturing PMI- measuring economic activity in the manufacturing zone increased in June to 55.3% after reaching 53.5% in May indicating a gradual recovery after May’s drop with 12 manufacturing sectors reporting  expansion. A small drop to 55.1 is expected now.
  2. Australian Rate decision, Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate at 4.75% in July amid expansion in the global economy although Australia is not expected to grow at the same rate earlier predicted but can rise in case world markets will continue to improve. No change is foreseen.
  3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. U.S. Private-Sector added 157,000 new Jobs in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising a mere36,000 inthe previous month indicating significant improvement in the job market. A smaller gain of 102,000 is predicted.
  4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The Non Manufacturing sector reached 53.3% in June 1.3 points lower than in May reflecting ongoing growth in the service sector with 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting gains. A rise to 53.9 is expected.
  5. New Zealand Employment data: Wednesday, 22:45.  Unemployment rate dropped in the first quarter to 6.6% following the previous reading 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, while 6.7% was predicted. Meantime employment change increased by 1.4% during the 1st quarter following 0.5% drop and forecasts of 0.6% gains indicating improvement in NZ’s job market. Employment change is predicted a small gain of 0.1% while unemployment rate is forecasted to drop to 6.5%. NZD/USD should get more attention.
  6. British Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. UK interest rates remained at 0.5% as was expected in light of weak market activity but with high rate of 4.5% decreasing consumer acquisition capacity. The same rate is expected now.
  7. Euro-Zone Rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. The European Central Bank (ECB) made a rate hike in July to 1.5% from 1.25% trying to combat inflation. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet announced that inflation would be closely monitored and rates would go higher if necessary. No change is foreseen.
  8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Jobless claims dropped below the 400K level for the first time in two months reaching 398K from 422K in the week before. This is very promising for the job market although this event is overshadowed by the US debt ceiling talks and approaching deadline. Nevertheless positive trend needs to continue in the next weeks in order to see a real improvement in the job market. A rise to 408,000 is predicted.
  9. Japan Rate decision, Friday. Japan’s central bank cut its annual economic growth prediction as a result of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, but claimed the economy is picking up and is due to fully recover by the second half of the fiscal year.  All the policy board members voted to retain the overnight call rate at 0.1%.
  10. Canadian Employment data:  Friday, 11:00. The Canadian job market created a remarkable number of jobs in June reaching 28,100 from 22,300 and well above estimations of 15,000. Unemployment rate remained 7.4% indicating improved job market conditions.
  11. US Non-Farm Employment Change, Friday, 12:30. Nonfarm payroll employment added very few jobs in June reaching 18,000 following 25,000 in the prior signifying a standstill in the American job market. The same rate is likely to be announced.
  12. US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. TheU.S. economy scarcely generated any jobs in the last two months and unemployment rate increased to 9.2 from9.1 in the previous month indicating the job market could take years to recover. Current Unemployment rate reading is the highest since December 2010. There are 14.1 million US citizens are actively seeking jobs. No change is forecasted.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:


Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer