Home USD/CAD Outlook – September 5-9
Canadian Dollar Forecast, Minors

USD/CAD Outlook – September 5-9

The  Canadian dollar  followed the US weakness and retreated.  A busy week is a head with the rate decision, employment figures, housing data and Ivey PMI. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar.

Last week Canadian domestic growth rate has rebounded in June after 0.3% drop in the previous month. This rise was in line predictions indicating Canadian economy is back to expansion. Will this trend continue?

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart  September 5 9 2011

Let’s Start:

  1. Rate decision: Wednesday, 13:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 1.25% on July. The BOC has previously hinted about possible rate hikes however eventually its members have decided to leave rates in light of the monetary crisis in Europe and the slowdown in the US market. No changes are forecasted.
  2. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Purchasing activity in the Canadian economy slid in July reaching 46.8 from59.9 in June. Analysts expected further gain to 60.2. This plunge indicates contraction in the purchasing activity. An increase to 46.7 is predicted.
  3. Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The value of building permits climbed by 2.1% in June after a 20.9 percent surge in building intentions in May. The expansion was mainly due to industrial and institutional buildings. A gain of 4.3% is expected.
  4. Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30.Canada’s trade deficit widened to 1.6B in June from 1.0B in the previous month after a slowdown in exports. However housing surge could change the picture luring more investors to Canadian assets. Deficit is expected to narrow to 0.8B.
  5. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The national new housing price index increased further by 0.3% following a rise in southernOntario and May’s increase of 0.4%. The main rise came from the city of Toronto and Oshawa. Further increase of 0.4% is expected.
  6. Employment data: Friday, 11:00. Canada’s unemployment rate decreased to 7.2% in July from 7.4% in the previous month, the lowest level since December 2008 and acceleration in job creation adding further 7,100 new jobs following28,400 in June. Job creation is expected to rise to 23,400 while unemployment is also expected to grow to 7.3%.
  7. Housing Starts: Friday, 12:15. Canadian housing starts unexpectedly increased by 4.3% in July reaching 205,000 units following201,000 in the previous month. This pickup indicated that the housing market is one of the strongest sectors in Canadian economy. An increase of 200,000 is predicted now.
  8. Labor Productivity: Friday, 12:30. The labor productivity of Canadian businesses climbed for the third straight quarter, increasing by 0.4% in Q1 and following 0.3% rise in the previous quarter. The overall increase in business productivity was mainly due to goods-producing businesses. A smaller gain of 0.2% is forecasted.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

The Canadian dollar had a good start to the week: USD/CAD dropped and even occasionally breached the 0.9750 line (mentioned last week). But towards the end of the week, the tables turned and the pair eventually closed higher, just under 0.9850.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start from 1.02, which was the historic low of 2009, and is a significant line of resistance, currently far off. It is followed by 1.0140, which capped the pair towards the end of 2010.

The last line above parity is 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011 and is getting closer.  The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, and it returns to strength after the recent test.

Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant on the recent rise.  Below, 0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor resistance, after being run through recently.

0.9850 was a swing high in May, and now proved to be tough resistance. It will be tested early in the week. The round number of 0.98 also served as a cushion, and its role is stronger now, after serving as significant resistance.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way. It provided a bouncing spot for further moves higher and proved to be strong, even though it was temporarily dipped below just now. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and had an important role in holding back recovery attempts, over and over again. The break above it pushed the pair quickly.

0.96 was a minor support line that played a role earlier in the year. It is weaker now.  0.9520 becomes a minor line after being shattered. It worked as support and also as minor resistance during April. It managed to cap the recovery attempt for some time.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. USD/CAD went as low as 0.9406 before the surge began.

Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.9250 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD.

The Canadian economy cannot avoid the serious slowdown in the US: it is highly dependent on its southern neighbor. Falling oil prices also add to the weight on the loonie – pushing USD/CAD higher.

Further reading:

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer