GBP/USD Outlook June 11-15

The pound reversed its deep slide, as GBP/USD rose slightly over one cent this week, closing at 1.5463. The upcoming week has seven releases, including Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK economic data came in around the market forecasts. However, the markets were impressed with Retail Sales, which looked very sharp, posting a 1.3% gain.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

MPC Member Tucker Speaks: Monday, 11:30.
Nationwide Consumer Confidence: 19th-22nd. This house indicator continues to be mired deep in negative territory. This trend is expected to continue, with a forecast for the June reading of -17%.
Manufacturing Production: Tuesday, 8:30. This key indicator posted a respectable 0.9% increase in the previous release. However, the markets are expecting a weaker reading in June, with an estimate of 0.1%.
NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 14:00. This monthly indicator tries to estimate GDP, which is released quarterly. The past three readings have all come in at 0.1%, indicating very weak economic growth by the UK economy.
Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, tentative. Consumer confidence remains weak, as the indicator has only been above the 50 point level once since August 2011. The May release posted a reading of 44 points, and little change is expected this month.
CB Leading Index: Thursday, 9:00. This composite index is based on seven economic indicators. The index has posted a reading of 0.1% for the past two readings.
BOE Gov King Speaks: Thursday, 18:00. The markets always pay close attention to remarks by the head of the Bank of England. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the pound.
Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30. Traders should take note of this indicator, since a better trade balance means foreign buyers are purchasing more British pounds to buy British goods. The UK recorded a deficit of 8.6 billion in the previous reading, and little change is expected in the June release.

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5348. After dropping to a low of 1.5321, the pound moved up sharply, climbing as high as 1.5600, an important resistance line (discussed last week). The pair then retraced, and closed at 1.5463.

Technical levels from top to bottom

We begin with strong resistance in 1.5930. Below, there is resistance just above the 1.58 line, at 1.5805. This is followed by resistance at 1.5648, which until recently was providing weak support. Close by, there is resistance at the round figure of 1.5600, which has had provided support since January. GBP/USD climbed as high as this line this week, before retracing.

This is followed by resistance at 1.5521. This line was briefly breached this week as the pound strengthened. 1.5415 was in a resistance role last week, and is now providing the pair with weak support. Look for this line to be tested if the pound weakens.

The next support line is 1.5361. Close by, the pair is being supported at 1.5309. This line has not been breached since September 2010.

Next, there is support at 1.5229. This is followed by the line of 1.5124, which has not been tested since July 2010. The final line for now is at 1.4986, just below the psychologically significant 1.50 level.

I continue to be bearish on GBP/USD.

The pound finally had a good week against the greenback after the free fall in May. However, the Spanish bailout and crisis in Greece are likely to cause nervous investors to look for safe haven currencies such as the US dollar. If the UK economy doesn’t show some improvement, look for the pound to lose more ground against the dollar.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

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