USD/CHF dropped sharply last week, as the Swiss franc gained almost two cents, to close at 0.9262. The upcoming week has four releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The swissie was bolstered by lackluster employment and industrial production data out the the US. As well as the dramatic QE3 announcement by the Federal Reserve late last week weakened the greenback.
Updates: The franc trades under 0.93. The new worries in Europe are pushing EUR/CHF closer to the 1.20 floor. So far, USD/CHF still enjoys some independence, but it may not last for too long. ZEW Economic Expectations continues to look very weak. The indicator declined in August, dropping to -34.9 points. The swissie continues to test the 0.93 line. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9295. The Trade Balance surplus hit a four-month low, disappointing the markets. The surplus fell to 1.73 billion francs, well below the estimate of 2.45B. The swissie shrugged off the weak release, as it continues to push higher. USD/CAD was trading at 0.9334.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
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SECO Economic Forecasts: Tuesday, 5:45. This well-respected economic report is issued quarterly by the federal government. It focuses on the major GDP components as well as other indicators such as employment and inflation.
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ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday, 9:00. This index is based on a survey of institutional analysts and investors. It has been rising of late, but is still deep in negative territory, with a reading of -33.3 points in August.
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Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. The monthly Trade Balance surplus has beaten the market forecast for three consecutive readings. The markets are expecting another rise in the surplus in the September release.
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SNB Quarterly Bulletin: Friday, 7:30. This SNB report usually has a mild impact on the markets since much of the data has previously been released. However, a report which is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the swissie.
*All times are GMT
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9454, and touched a high of 0.9483. It was all downhill from there, as the pair plunged to 0.9239. USD/CHF closed the week sharply down, at 0.9262, slightly above support at 0.9250 (discussed last week).
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin our analysis lower down, following the sharp drop by USD/CHF. There is resistance at 0.9783, which has held firm since mid-August. This is followed by 0.9719. Next, there is resistance at 0.9584. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. Below is resistance at 0.9510. This line has seen a lot of action recently, and has reverted between support and resistance roles.
We find further resistance at 0.9412. This line was providing weak support just last week. Next, there is resistance at 0.9317. This line had provided the pair with strong support since mid-May, until it was breached last week.
The pair is receiving support at 0.9250. This is a weak line, and was breached last week before the pair retracted. Further support can be found at 0.9182. Next, there is support at 0.9093. There is further support at 0.9016, just above the crucial 0.90 level. This line has held firm since April. Below, we find support at 0.8918. This is followed by support at 0.8805, which is protecting the 0.88 line. The final support line for now is 0.8683.
I am bearish on USD/CHF.
USD/CHF continues its free-fall, having now lost over seven cents since July. The decline has continued despite the ECB bond-buying proposal and QE3, both of which have bolstered the euro. Further weak US data or bad news out of Europe could help the swissie push even higher.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.