USD/CHF Outlook September 10-14

USD/CHF lost over one cent on the week, as the pair closed at 0.9438. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with just three releases, all at the end of the week.  Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The pair continued to trade in a narrow range for most of the week, but disappointing US Non-Farm  Payroll numbers hurt the  US dollar and helped push up the Swiss franc.

Updates: The Swiss franc has edged upwards, ahead of a crucial decision by a German court on the legality of the ESM. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9449. There are two key releases on Thursday – the Libor rate and the quarterly SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. The swissie is struggling to stop its recent slide, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9362. PPI surprised the markets with a solid 0.5% gain. The estimate stood at -0.2%. As expected, the SNB maintained the Libor Rate at its current level of <0.25%. There were few surprises in the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, as the central bank  maintained its policy stance. The Bank is forecasting real GDP growth of 1%  for 2012, with the  estimate for inflation standing at -0.6%. The swissie is steady, with USD/CHF  trading at 0.9387.  It finally happened:  the Fed announced QE3  – open ended, $40 billion per month, in addition to more twist and a longer pledge for low rates through 2015. The rise of EUR/USD helps EUR/CHF develop a life of its own, so USD/CHF isn’t falling too much.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. PPI: Thursday, 7:15. This important manufacturing indicator has been declining since April, with a 0.3% drop in the previous release. A similar reading is expected in September.
2. Libor Rate: Thursday, 7:30. This key interest rate is published each quarter. The present rate is 0%-0.25%, and no change is expected in the September release.
3. SNB Monetary Policy Assessment: Thursday, 7:30.  Analysts carefully review the  quarterly SNB Statement for clues as to future interest and economic policies. A statement which is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the swiss franc.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9550, and touched a high of 0.9583, as resistance  at 0.9584  held firm (discussed last week).  The pair then dropped to a low of 0.9433, and closed the week at 0.9438.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  begin  our analysis with  resistance at 1.0136. Next is the resistance line at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010. This is followed by the pschycologically important parity line, which continues to provide strong resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915.

This is followed by  resistance at 0.9783. There is followed by 0.9719, which has strengthened as the pair trades slightly lower. There is weak resistance at 0.9584, which held firm as the pair moved upwards early in the trading week. The next line of resistance is at 0.9510, which was in a support role last week.

USD/CHF is receiving support at 0.9412. This line looks to be tested if the swissie continues to weaken.  Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since mid-May. This is followed by support at 0.9250. Further support can be found at 0.9182. Next, there is  support at 0.9093. There is further support at 0.9016, which has held firm since April. The final support level for now is below the  crucial 0.90 line, at 0.8918.