After the swissie’s recent rally, USD/CHF was relatively quiet last week, as the Swiss franc was down slightly against the greenback. The upcoming week has three releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The pair was relatively stable, as key US releases were mixed. Existing Home Sales was well above the market estimate, but Unemployment Claims came in higher than the forecast.
Updates: The Consumption Indicator suffered a sharp drop, coming in at 1.03 points. This marked a six-month low for the consumer indicator. SNB Governing Board Chairman Thomas Jordan delivered a speech in Pfäffikon. The Swiss franc has edged downwards, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9349. KOF Economic Barometer will be released on Friday. The markets are expecting very little change from the previous release. The swissie continues to test 0.94, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9393.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks: Monday, 22:00. The SNB Chairman will be delivering remarks at a meeting in Zurich. Analysts and traders will be looking for clues as to the central bank’s monetary policy.
- UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 6:00. The composite index has had posted two consecutive strong readings, and the markets are hoping this consumer indicator will continue to look sharp in September.
- KOF Economic Barometer: Friday, 7:00. This well-respected index is based on 12 economic indicators. The index hit a 12-month high in August, and the markets are predicting a similar reading this month.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9254, and touched a low of 0.9245. The pair then pushed up to 0.9355, and closed the week at 0.9328, as the resistance line of 0.9317 (discussed last week) held firm.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 0.9783. This line has held firm since mid-August. This is followed by 0.9719. Next, there is resistance at 0.9584. This level saw a lot of action through most of August and in early September. Below is resistance at 0.9510. This line has seen a lot of action recently, and has reverted between support and resistance roles. The next line of resistance is at 0.9412.
The pair is receiving weak support at 0.9317. This line was breached this week as the pair moved upwards. Next, there is support at 0.9250. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels. Further support can be found at 0.9182. Next, there is support at 0.9093.
There is further support at 0.9016, just above the crucial 0.90 level. This line has held firm since April. Below, we find support at 0.8918. This is followed by support at 0.8805, which is protecting the 0.88 line. The final support line for now is 0.8683.
I am bullish on USD/CHF.
The swissie has enjoyed a strong September, but will this continue? With QE3 behind us,further weak US nunbers may lead investors to seek the safety of the US dollar at the expense of the Swiss franc.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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