Home AUD/USD Forecast March 11-15

AUD/USD  showed almost no change over the week, as the pair closed at 1.0230. This week’s major  release is Employment Change.  Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian data  was a mix, as Building Approvals and Trade Balance were weak, while Retail Sales posted strong gains. The RBA maintained interest rates at 3.0%. The Australian dollar did show some strong movement in  both directions, but ended up almost unchanged at  the end of  the week.

Updates: NAB Business Sentiment fell to  1 point. The indicator had come in at 3 points over the past two readings. The markets are hoping for better news from Westpac Consumer Sentiment, which will be released later on Tuesday. The Australian dollar continues to improve, and has pushed above the 1.03 line. AUD/USD was trading at 1.0328. MI Inflation Expectations showed little change, gaining 2.3%. Employment Change was spectacular, hitting a 13 year high. The indicator jumped to 71.5 thousand, blowing past the estimate of 9.5 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dipped to 5.4%, beating the estimate of 5.5%. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent spoke at an event in Sydney. The Aussie has posted sharp gains, and was trading at 1.0370.


AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUD USD Forecast Mar 11-15_


  1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence has bounced back nicely in 2013, posting 3 points in the past two releases. The markets will be hoping for another strong showing in March.
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. Consumer Sentiment has been erratic, making accurate predictions a tricky task. The indicator sparkled in Februrary, jumping 7.7%. This was the best showing since July 2010. The markets would be delighted to see some consistency in consumer confidence, although it will be a tough challenge to repeat last month’s gain.
  3. Home Loans: Wednesday, 00:30. Home Loans gained 0.6% in February. Although this was not a robust gain by any means, the reading was the first one above the zero level in 2013. An increase in home loans means more activity in the housing sector and also points to increased consumer confidence and spending, which is crucial to an economic recovery.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00: Inflation Expectations helps analysts track and predict actual inflation figures. CPI figures are only released once each quarter, in contrast to Inflation Expectations, which is released monthly. This indicator has been in the 2.0% range in recent readings, and the markets are not expecting a signficant change in the upcoming release.
  5. Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30.  Employment Change is the key release of the upcoming week. The indicator has looked sharp, with most recent releases easily exceeding the market estimates. In February, there were 10.4 thousand newly employed   people, and the estimate for March is similar, at 10.7 thousand.   As a market-mover, any unexpected reading could affect the direction of AUD/USD. The Unemployment Rate, which has been pegged at 5.4% for the pasty two readings, is expected to inch up to 5.5% in March.


 AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0196 and  dropped to a low of 1.0115, as the  support line of 1.080 (discussed last week) held steady. The pair rebounded and climbed all the way to 1.0301. AUD then retracted, closing the week at 1.0230.

Technical lines from top to bottom:   AUD USD Forecast Mar 11-15


We  start with resistance at 1.0739. The is followed by 1.0605. The pair has not tested this line since September. Below, there is resistance at 1.0508. This line was breached in January, when the Aussie commenced a downward trend from which it is yet to recover. Next, there is resistance at the line of 1.0418. We next encounter resistance at 1.0371. This is followed by 1.0326, which  held steady is  the  pair pushed as high as the 1.03 line before retracting.  Below, 1.0260 is providing resistance. This line is a weak one, and could continue to see activity if the pair can muster any upward momentum.

AUD/USD is receiving support at 1.0174. This line was breached early in the week, but remains intact.  Next is 1.0080, which is protecting the parity level. This line held firm as the pair dropped close to the 1.01 level. The parity line, last tested in June, is psychologically significant and provides the next line of support. Below is 0.9917. This is followed by 0.9876, which has held firm since June of 2012. The final support line for now is at 0.9785.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has had a shaky 2013, and Australian data continues to be mixed. Stronger numbers out of the US should make the Aussie more attractive, but investors still seem reluctant to stray far from the safe-haven US dollar. Unless Australian data shows dramatic improvement, we can expect the Australian dollar to remain under pressure from its US cousin.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.