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Forex Daily Outlook May 15 2013

US Producer Price Index, BOE Inflation Report and UK employment data are the main events today.   Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Producer Price Index, measuring shifts in prices of finished products, declined unexpectedly by 0.6% in March following a 0.7% gain in the previous month. Analysts expected a 0.2% drop. Meanwhile Core PPI excluding food and energy products gained 0.2% following the same rise in February, in line with market predictions. PPI is expected to fall another 0.6% while Core PPI is expected to increase 0.1%.

Later in the US, Empire State Manufacturing Index, a New York manufacturers’ Survey an indicator of the  economy, plunged to 3.1 in April following 9.2 in March, missing predictions for a 7.2 reading. A small rise to 3.6 is expected this time.

Later on in the US, TIC Long-Term Purchases measuring the difference between foreign purchases of long-term securities  by Americans and foreigners, reached -17.8 billion in February after registering a 25.7 billion in January. Analysts expected a 41.3 billion reading.  This time a reading of 33.8 billion is forecasted.

More in the US, Capacity Utilization Rate, measuring the percentage of resources utilized by manufacturers declined to 78.5% in March from 79.6% in February, a bit higher than the78.4% projected.  Another decline to 78.4% is expected now.

Moreover in the US, Industrial Production continued to increase in March gaining 0.4% following a 0.7% rise in February, higher than the 0.3% increase anticipated. This time, a 0.1% drop is expected.

Also in the US, Crude Oil Inventories declined last week reaching 0.2 million after registering a 6.7 million barrels  in the week before. Analysts expected a reading of 2.1 million.   A rise to 0.5 million is expected now.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales, measuring the total value of producer sales, surprised with a 2.6% climb in February after a 0.6% decline in January. The reading was much higher than the 0.6% increase predicted by analysts. A 0.6% gain is forecasted this time.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Preliminary GDP readings for the fourth quarter of 2012 in France, Italy, Germany and the Eurozone continued to disappoint. France contracted by 0.3% following a 0.1% expansion in the third quarter, worse than the 0.2% decline expected and Italy plunged 0.9% after a 0.2% drop in the third quarter, while predicted to weaken 0.5%. Germany disappointed with a 0.6% decline after a 0.2% expansion in the third quarter. The Eurozone Also contracted by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline in the third quarter, worse than the 0.4% decline expected. France and the Eurozone are expected to contract by 0.1%, Italy by 0.4% and Germany is expected to expand by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013.

For more on the Euro, read the  Euro to dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Claimant Count Change. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK declined by 7,000 in March after dropping 5,300 in February, much better than the flat reading predicted by analysts. Another decline of 3,100 is expected now.

Later in Great Britain, Mervyn King speaks. BOE Governor Mervyn King will speak in London about the inflation report following its release. His words can cause volatility in the market.

Later on in Great Britain, BOE Inflation Report details the Bank of England’s forecast concerning inflation and economic growth in the next two years, followed by a press conference. Both events can cause volatility in the market.

More in Great Britain, Unemployment Rate increased unexpectedly to 7.9% in February, up by 0.1% from the month before and from analysts’ predictions. No change is expected this time.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Producer Price Index remained flat in March, in line with market predictions, following   a 0.1% rise in the previous month. This time a drop of 0.2% is forecasted.

Later in Switzerland,   ZEW Economic Expectations, investors and analysts’ sentiment surged in March, climbing to 20 from2.3 in February.

Read more about the Swiss franc in the USD/CHF forecast.

In Australia, New Motor Vehicle Sales dropped 0.6% in March following a 0.1% fall in February. Another dorp is expected this time.

Later in Australia, Wage Price Index. Wages increased by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2012 after a smaller rise of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The rise was in line with predictions. Another rise of the same amount is expected this time.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Business NZ Manufacturing Index.  Manufacturers’ sentiment in NZ continued to be positive in March reaching 53.4 dropping 2.6 points from February, but still above the 50 point line.

For more about the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity, measuring Japan’s service sector activity surprised with a 1.1% climb in February, following a 1.5% fall in January. Economists expected a smaller rise of 0.8%. A drop of 0.6% is expected now.

Read more about the yen in the USD/JPY forecast.

Trade well

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer