The Canadian dollar had a dreadful week, shedding about 250 points against the US currency. USD/CAD climbed close to the 1.10 level and closed the week at 1.0887. The upcoming week has a very light schedule, with just two releases.
US employment numbers started off the week strongly, as ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Claims looked sharp. However, Friday’s NFP of just 74 thousand was a two-year low, and hurt the loonie as investors scurried to the safe-haven US dollar. Canadian key releases didn’t do the loonie any favors last week, as Ivey PMI and Building Permits both slipped badly.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 13:30. This report is issued by the Bank of Canada each quarter. The survey covers about 100 businesses who are asked for their view on a wide range of business conditions, including spending, hiring and credit expectations. The indicator can affect the movement of USD/CAD.
- Foreign Securities Purchases: Thursday, 13:30. This indicator is closely related to currency demand, as foreigners need to purchase Canadian dollars in order to buy domestic securities. In November, the indicator tumbled to 4.41 billion dollars, down from 8.36 billion in the previous reading. This was nowhere near the estimate of 9.24 billion. The markets are expecting a strong improvement for the December release, with an estimate of 7.21 billion.
*All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0632 and quickly touched the weekly low of 1.0609. It was all uphill from there, as the pair climbed as high as 1.0946, just above resistance at 1.0945 (discussed last week). The pair could not consolidate at these levels and closed the week at 1.0887.
Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We begin at high levels as USD/CAD has posted sharp gains:
There is resistance at 1.1369. This line fell in October 2008 as the US dollar posted huge gains, climbing as high as the 1.21 level. It has remained intact since July 2009. This is followed by resistance at 1.1124.
The next resistance line is 1.0945, which is protecting the key 1.10 level. This line has not been tested since September 2009.
1.0853 could not hold back the surging US dollar last week, and has switched to a support role. It is a weak line and could see some activity early in the week.
1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory. It starts off the week as a strong support line.
1.0660 was breached early in the week as the loonie took a tumble. It saw a lot of activity in the second half of December.
1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011 and has provided support since late November.
1.0446 has held since mid-November, when the US dollar continued a rally which saw it break above the 1.07 line.
The final support line for now is 1.0340, which had a busy October.
I am bullish on USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar has been under pressure, and the roof finally caved in last week. With more QE expected from the Federal Reserve and the Canadian economy continuing to struggle, there’s more room for the pair to move upwards.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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