Home AUD/USD Forecast June 16-20

AUD/USD  had another quiet  week, posting minor  gains. The pair  closed at the round number of 0.9400. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian numbers were a mix last week, as business sentiment improved, while  Employment Change took a tumble.  In the US, it was a week to forget, as key releases, notably employment and retail sales, fell short of their estimates.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     AUDUSD Forecast June16-20


  1. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent:  Monday, 3:20. Kent will deliver remarks at an event in Sydney. The markets will be looking for a clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes:  Tuesday, 1:30. This is the key  event of the week. The minutes present a detailed record of the  RBA’s  previous  policy meeting,  which maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%. Traders should treat the indicator as a market-mover which can have a significant impact on the movement of AUD/USD.
  3. New Motor Vehicles Sales: Tuesday, 1:30.  This is an important  gauge of   consumer spending, as new motor vehicles are big-ticket purchases. The indicator has run into trouble, and has failed to post a strong gain in 2014. Will the indicator show some improvement in the May reading?
  4. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:00. The index is based on 7 economic indicators, and  helps analysts track the health and direction of the economy. The indicator  lost ground  last month, coming in at with a  flat 0.0%  reading.  Will May bring better news?
  5. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This is considered a minor event, as the most of the data has been previously released. The index looked sluggish in April, coming in at -0.5%.
  6. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This report is published each quarter, and is unlikely to have much effect on AUD/USD, since much of the information has already been released.

*All times are GMT.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.9335, which was also the low of the week.  The pair then pushed above the 0.94 line, touching a high of 0.9437, as resistance at 0.9442 (discussed last week) remained intact. The pair closed the week at 0.9400.


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  begin  with resistance at 0.9910, which has remained firm since last May.

0.9758 marked the start of a rally by the US dollar, which saw the pair drop as low as 0.8650.

This is followed by the  round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9442  remained intact as the pair showed some strength. This line marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line.

0.9368  continues to be busy, and  was breached early in the week as the pair moved to higher ground. It has reverted to a support role, and could face pressure early in the week.

0.9283 has some breathing room following gains by the Australian dollar last week. The next line of support is at 0.9175.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.

The  final support line for now  is  0.8893.  AUD/USD broke above this line in February, and has posted strong gains since then.


I am  neutral on AUD/USD.

The Aussie continues to trade at high levels against its US counterpart. The RBA has come out strongly against the high value of the currency, and we could see this reiterated in the minutes which will be released this week. The markets will be looking for a rebound from US numbers after a bad week, and will be closely monitoring the Federal Reserve statement.


Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.