USD/JPY gained about 100 points last week, as the pair closed at 120.84. This marked the first time the pair has closed above the 120 line in 2015. There are 9 events this week, highlighted by Final GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
There were no major Japanese events last week, and the dollar posted strong gains late in the week as the US gained 295 thousand jobs in February, beating expectations.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Japanese yen to buy Japanese goods and services. The indicator improved to 0.98 trillion yen in December, ahead of the forecast of 0.95 trillion. The upward trend is expected to continue, with the January report expected at 1.16 trillion yen.
- Final GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Final GDP is the major event of the week and can have a significant impact on the movement of USD/JPY. Preliminary GDP, which came out in February, posted a gain of 0.6%, shy of the forecast of 0.9%. Little change is expected in Final GDP, with the estimate standing at 0.5%.
- Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This minor event continues to post readings below the 50-point line, indicative of ongoing pessimism among surveyed workers. The indicator came in at 45.6 points in January and is expected to improve to 46.7 points in February.
- M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. The indicator dipped to 3.4% in January, short of the forecast of 3.6%. Little change is expected in the upcoming report.
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. This minor indicator has been softening, and dropped to 20.4% in January.
- Core Machinery Orders: Tuesday, 23:50. Core Machinery Orders is an important gauge of the strength of the manufacturing sector. The indicator tends to post sharp swings, resulting in readings that are well off the estimates. This was the case in December report, as the indicator jumped 8.3%, crushing the estimate of 2.4%. The markets are expecting a sharp downturn in the January release, with a forecast of -3.9%. Will the indicator repeat and again beat the estimate?
- BSI Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 23:50. This index is released quarterly, magnifying the impact of each reading. The indicator dipped to 8.1 points in Q3, compared to 12.7 in the Q3 release. The downward trend is expected to continue, with the estimate standing at 5.7 points.
- Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 5:00. Consumer Confidence remains weak, as the indicator has been below the 40-point level for the past five readings. The January reading came in at 39.1 points, within expectations. The forecast for the February report is 39.9 points.
- Revised Industrial Production: Friday, 4:30. The indicator follows Preliminary Industrial Production, which posted an excellent gain of 4.0%, beating the estimate of 2.9%. The estimate for Revised Industrial Production stands at 4.0%.
* All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY started the week at 119.83. The pair dropped to a low of 119.38. The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 121.28, as resistance held firm at 121.39 (discussed last week). USD/JPY closed the week at 120.84.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 125.72, which has last breached in December 2002.
124.16 marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.
122.19 remains a strong resistance line which has held firm since July 2007.
121.39 held firm as the dollar pushed higher late in the week. It is currently a weak resistance line.
119.88 is an immediate support level.
117.94 has strengthened as the pair moved higher this week.
116.82 is providing strong support and has remained intact since mid-January.
116.02 is the next support level.
114.65 is the final support level for now. This line has remained intact since December 2007, when the yen posted a strong rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line.
I am bullish on USD/JPY
The dollar finds itself on a lofty perch above the 120 line, but it has had difficulty maintaining this level. Still, US economy is in good shape and the dollar is benefitting from increased speculation about a mid-year rate hike.
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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