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NZD/USD Forecast Apr. 13-17

The  New Zealand dollar  gave in  to  the comeback of the US dollar. A busy schedule awaits kiwi traders this week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The kiwi dollar had no fundamental data to lean upon, but its basic strength meant it weathered the dollar storm better than other currencies.  US data seemed better with a positive read on services and a good JOLTs number. It was the  more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes that gave the greenback the real boost. Talks about a hike in June were to key to the greenback comeback, despite the NFP that practically came afterwards.

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NZD/USD  daily chart    with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD technical analysis chart April 13 17 2015

  1. NZIER Business Confidence:  Monday, 22:00.  This 2500 strong survey has bounced after a series of falls. For Q4 2014, it hit 23 points. A small rise is likely for Q1 2015.
  2. FPI: Tuesday, 22:45. The change in the price of food is important as New Zealand is an exporter of food. However, as  dairy products take center stage, this release is somewhat overshadowed by the GDP release later on. After a fall of 0.7% in February, a small tick up is on the cards now.
  3. GDT Price Index: Wednesday. The exact timing of this bi-weekly indicator is unknown, but the impact is usually significant. After a series of nice rises, prices experienced sharp drops in the the last two publication: 8.8% and 10.8%. A small bounce is likely now.
  4. Business NZ Manufacturing Index:  Wednesday, 22:30. The PMI like figure has been positive, above 50 points, for long months. It bounced higher to 55.9 points in February and could edge up a bit more in February.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar  began the week with a slide, losing the grip of the 0.7615 line (mentioned last week). Later n, the pair found its range between 0.75 and 0.7615.

Live chart of NZD/USD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The round level of 0.78 played a role in the past and is high resistance. IT is followed closely by 0.7765 which capped the pair late in 2014.

The round level of 0.77 proved its strength in March 2015 and capped the kiwi’s ascent. Below, 0.7665 is lower resistance, after having this role in December.

0.7615 now works as resistance after providing support during January 2015. It is followed closely by 0.7585 which capped the pair on an initial recovery attempt. Another line to watch out for is 0.7550, which separated ranges in March 2015.

The very round  number of 0.75 capped the pair just before the big fall and serves as strong resistance. It is followed by 0.7450 that had a role in the past.

The next line is 0.7370, which was a low point in 2011. It is followed by 0.7325, which capped the pair in the middle of 2010.

The recent 2015 low of 0.7235 is  now the next  support line. It is followed by 0.7180 that served as resistance back in 2010.

The swing low of 0.71 in 2011 provides further support before the very round number of 0.70.

I am bullish  on  NZD/USD

The kiwi showed its strength in holding  its head high in the wake of a fresh USD storm. Assuming the greenback does not continue surging so strongly, we could see NZD/USD tick gently higher, especially if milk prices  resume their advance.

In this  week’s podcast, we  discuss:  USDown or greenback comeback? And also touch other topics:

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Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.