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USD/JPY Forecast June 29 – July 3

USD/JPY  pushed higher, gaining about 100 points on the week.  This week’s highlights are Retail Sales and the Tankan Indices. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

US Final GDP posted a slight decline, but  housing numbers were strong,  and the week ended with excellent consumer sentiment data. In Japan, consumer spending was unexpectedly strong but inflation indicators remained sluggish.

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USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:


  1. Retail Sales: Sunday, 23:50.  The week kicks off with Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending. In May, the indicator surged after three straight declines, posting a gain of 5.0%. However, this was shy of the estimate of 5.3%. The estimate for the June report stands at 2.1%.
  2. Average Cash Earnings:  Tuesday, 1:30.  This  indicator helps measure consumer spending, a key component of economic growth. In May, the indicator improved to 0.9%, easily beating the forecast of 0.4%. The estimate for the June report stands at 0.7%.
  3. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 5:00. This minor event provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The indicator posted a gain of 0.4% in May, within expectations. The markets are expecting the indicator to surge in June, with an estimate of 6.2%. Will the indicator match or beat this rosy prediction?
  4. Tankan Manufacturing Index: Tuesday, 23:50. The index is based on a survey of large manufacturers, and is released each quarter. The indicator remained unchanged in the Q1 report, posting a reading of 12 points, which was within expectations. No change is expected in the Q2 report.
  5. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index: Tuesday, 23:50. This indicator has been moving upwards and improved to 19 points in Q1, beating the estimate of 17 points. The upward swing is expected to continue in Q2, with an estimate of 23 points.
  6. Final Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:35. The index has been above the 50-point level for most of 2015, pointing to expansion in the manufacturing sector. The indicator improved to 50.9 in the May reading, matching the forecast. The estimate for the June report stands at 49.9 points.
  7. Monetary Base: Wednesday, 23:50. Monetary Base has been steady, and showed little change in the May reading of 35.6 %. This beat the forecast of 34.3%. The markets are expecting a slight improvement in the June report, with an estimate of 36.2%.
  8. 10-year Bond Auction: Thursday, 3:45. The yield for 10-year bonds was 0.45% at the June auction, little changed from the previous month. Will we see more of the same in the upcoming release?

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY  opened the week at 122.76. The pair touched a low of 122.56, as support held firm at 1.2202 (discussed last week). USD/JPY then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 1.2437.  The pair closed the week at 123.72.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with 1.2774, which was an important support level back in March 2002.

1.2659 has remained intact since April 2001.

1.2589  continues to be a strong resistance line.

124.16 was tested for a second straight week as the pair posted gains before retracting.

123.11 continues to be busy and has switched to a support role following gains by the dollar.

122.02 held firm  in support for a second straight week  as the pair softened late in the week. It is currently a weak line and could see action early in the week.

121.39 is the  next support level.

120.65 is the last support line before the symbolic 120 level.

119.65 was an important cap in April.

118.68 is the final support line for now.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

The Fed’s monetary stance may be slightly more hawkish than perceived, as a Fed policymaker spoke of one or even two rate hikes in 2015. If there are further hints about a rate hike, the greenback could continue to make gains against the yen. With the Japanese economy not responding to the BOJ’s accommodative stance, monetary divergence will continue to weigh on the struggling yen.

In our latest podcast, we discuss building on the US recovery, the Greek crisis and EUR, Saudi solar and next week’s events.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.