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AUD/USD Forecast, Minors

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 14-18

AUD/USD  saw its fate change and enjoyed a nice recovery, owing mostly to domestic strength and dollar weakness. The release of the RBA meeting minutes is the main event.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Despite worse than expected Chinese data, markets managed to stabilize and this certainly helped the Aussie rebound after the big plunge. At home, the Aussie enjoyed better than expected jobs numbers. In the US, the weak consumer sentiment weighed on the greenback ahead of the big Fed meeting.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Technical analysis September 14 18 2015 Australian dollar fundamental outlook

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. In the  last rate decision in early September, the RBA left its  language regarding the Aussie unchanged: it did not express worries like in the past. This came after the Chinese crisis and the subsequent slide of the A$. The meeting minutes could reveal a bit more into the prospects of the Australian economy amid the slowdown in its critical trade partner.
  2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. Sales of  new vehicles serve as a  bellwether for the wider economy, as the vast distances in the continent require extensive use of cars and trucks. After  a slide of 1.3% in  July, we can expect a rise in August.
  3. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This compound indicator has remained unchanged in the past two months, reflecting a lack of real momentum, as we already know. The 9 components of this figure will likely form another mediocre result for August.
  4. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. The quarterly report from the  central bank provides yet another look at the economy from the ones that move the Aussie most: the RBA members.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week with a climb back above the round number of 0.70 mentioned last week, It eventually held higher ground and reached 0.7087.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.7440 capped the pair back in August, and remains key resistance. 0.7284 is a clear separator of ranges, also seen around the same time, and is also stronger.

The line of 0.7213 was a swing low before the recent crash, and serves as a minor line. 0.7160 capped the pair quite recently and could slow a rise.

The round 0.71 mark was challenged quite recently and is immediate resistance. It is closely followed by 0.7060 which worked in both directions  of late.

The very round level of 0.70 worked as a cushion in August and remains an important battle line. 0.6930 is where the pair bounced from in September.

The last line for now is the round level of 0.69.

I am  bearish on AUD/USD

The Aussie managed to rise as markets became calmer. But can this last? Despite the recent positive data from Australia, the RBA could push it down in the minutes. From the other side of the world, the Fed could hike and send the  lower. Even without a hike, some hawkish talk could do the job. See all the latest about the Fed decision.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.