Home USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 30-Dec. 4

It was another quiet week for USD/JPY, as the pair finished the week almost unchanged, at 122.71. The upcoming week  has eight  events.  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

It was another good week for US jobs data, as Unemployment Claims dropped sharply to 260 thousand. Housing and consumer data missed expectations, but the overall health of the economy is good, meaning that the Fed will likely raise rates next week. In Japan, Household Spending was down sharply and inflation indicators remained very weak.

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USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USDJPY Daily Chart Nov. 30-Dec4

  1. Retail Sales: Sunday, 23:50. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the direction of USD/JPY. The indicator posted a decline of 0.2% in October, marking its first decline in six months. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the November report, with an estimate of 0.9%.
  2. Housing Starts: Monday, 5:00. Housing Starts provide a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The indicator continues to post gains, and came in at 2.6% in October. However, this was well short of the forecast of 6.5%. The estimate for the November report stands at 2.5%.
  3. Capital Spending: Monday, 23:50. Capital spending is often an early signal of spending and hiring by businesses, which is critical for economic growth. The indicator posted a gain of 5.6% in Q2, but this was short of the estimate of 9.0%. The markets are expecting a weaker gain of 2.3% in the November report.
  4. Final Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:35. The PMI has been above the 50-point level  since May, indicative of  ongoing expansion in  the manufacturing sector. The October reading improved to 52.4 points, just above  the estimate of 52.1 points. The  estimate for the November reading stands at 52.8 points.
  5. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. Yields on 10-year bonds have weakened in recent months, with the yield at the November auction dropping to 0.32%. Will the downturn continue in the December release?
  6. Monetary Base: Tuesday, 23:50. Monetary Base readings have generally been quite close to the estimates, although the October reading of 32.5% was weaker than the forecast of 36.2%. The estimate for the November release stands at 35.2%.
  7. Average Cash Earnings: Friday, 1:30.Average  Cash Earnings  is correlated with consumer  spending, a key driver of economic  growth.  The indicator has been steady, and  posted  a gain of 0.6% in October, which was within expectations. The  estimate for the November release stands at 0.4%.
  8. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 5:00.  The indicator  is closely tracked, as the stronger consumer confidence often translates into stronger consumer spending. The indicator continues to post readings close to the 40.0 point level, indicative of ongoing pessimism amongst Japanese consumers. Little change is expected in the November report, with an estimate of 41.8 points.

* All times are GMT

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY opened the week at 122.93 and climbed to a high of 123.26,  testing resistance at 123.00  (discussed last week). The pair dropped to 122.26 but recovered and closed the week at 122.71.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

126.59 has remained intact since May 2002.

The very round number of 125 remains an important resistance line.

124.16 was an important cap in late June.

The round number of 123 was tested for a second straight week and  is currently a weak  resistance line. It could see further action early in the week.

121.50  is providing strong support. This line was  a key resistance line in September.

120.40, which was a swing low in July, is next.

119.19 has held firm since October. It is the final support level for now.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

With the US economy headed in the right direction, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates at its December meeting. Although this event has been priced in by the markets, the US dollar could still make strong gains against its rivals if such a historic move does take place.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.