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Non-Farm Payrolls beat with 255K – USD jumps

Great jobs report: 255K jobs gained, revisions positive with +18K, higher participation rate at 62.8%, wages up 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y, unemployment rate 4.9%. All in all, a very good report. Even the average workweek is higher at 34.5 hours.  It is hard to find negative data in the report. It also shows that May  was a one-off halt in hiring and since then job gains have accelerated. A big sigh of relief is released after this  publication. A rate hike in December, after the US elections, is on the cards.

USD is on the rise across the board on this great report and even rate hike odds are rising. Will the USD continue rising? There are good reasons to believe so, as the report was solid.


The US was expected to report a gain of 180K jobs in July after an outstanding 287K leap in June. The unemployment rate carried expectations for a drop to 4.9%. Wages were predicted to advance 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m and 2.6% y/y last time.

The key data and reactions below will be updated.  Scroll down for the live blog.

June  NFP Data

  • Non-Farm Payrolls:  255K  (exp. +180K, last 287K before revisions)
  • Average Hourly Earnings +0.3%, 2.6% y/y  (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month +0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y)
  • Revisions: +18K, 24K now in May, 292K in June  .(-6K last time)
  • Participation Rate: 62.8%  (62.7% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.9%  (exp.4.8%,  last month 4.9% before revisions)
  • Private Sector: 217K  (ADP showed stable  +179K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.7%  (previous: 9.6%).
  • Employment to population ratio: 59.7%  (previous: 59.6%)
  • Average  workweek: 34.5  (exp. 34.4K, last month: 34.4).

NFP Currency Reaction – USD is rising

  • EUR/USD was drifting within its usual frustrating range at the 1.11 handle. The pair drops under 1.11. Support awaits at 1.1070.
  • GBP/USD was still licking its wounds from the comprehensive BOE package. Cable is under 1.31, with a low of 1.3070. Support awaits at 1.3060.
  • USD/JPY traded at the 101 handle in a week that saw a lack of surprises also from the government.  The pair is higher at 101.40.
  • USD/CAD was hugging the 101 level. Note that Canada also released its own jobs report. Together with bad Canadian jobs report  we have a rise to 1.3130.
  • AUD/USD traded on high ground despite a rate cut earlier in the week. The pair trades at 0.7650.
  • NZD/USD is looking strong  and weaker afterwards, slipping under 0.72.

NFP Live Blog – as it  happened

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.