A huge surprise in the jobs report: a gain of 287K jobs, no less. However, May is now only 11K. Wages are 0.1% m/m, less than expected but better than last time y/y at 2.6%. Numbers are all over the place but all in all this is a good report. It proves that May’s poor result was a one-off. However, the chances of a rate hike are off anyway, due to Brexit. The dollar could further extends its gains.
The USD is higher in the immediate aftermath but the reactions vary.
US Non-Farm Payrolls was expected to show a gain of 175K in June, a big rebound from the terrible NFP for May, which showed only 38K. Wages were expected to rise 0.2% m/m like in May and the unemployment rate carried expectations for a rise to 4.8%.
June NFP Data
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 287K (exp. +175K, last 38K before revisions)
- Average Hourly Earnings:0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
- Revisions: –6K – quite balanced.May revised down to only 11K, April revised up to 144K.(–59K last time)
- Participation Rate: 62.7% (62.6% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 4.9% (exp.4.8%, last month 4.7% before revisions)
- Private Sector: 265K (ADP showed stable +172K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.6% (previous: 9.7%).
- Employment to population ratio: 59.6% (previous: 59.7%)
- Average workweek: 34.4 (exp. 34.4K, last month: 34.4).
NFP Currency Reaction
- EUR/USD traded around 1.1065 partially affected by Brexit. The pair slides to 1.10 after the release and attempts to bounce.
- GBP/USD was just under 1.30, but there are reasons to sell the pair. Cable is under 1.2930 afterwards.
- USD/JPY was leaning lower at 100.40. Some think it could break 99. But after the release, we have 101.
- USD/CAD flirted with 1.30, showing resilience ahead of the Canadian jobs report and despite the fall in oil prices. The Canadian dollar is also hit by a weak Canadian jobs report. USD/CAD climbs to 1.3050.
- AUD/USD was around 0.7515, remaining stable despite political uncertainty. AUD/USD is actually higher at 0.7540.
- NZD/USD is looking strong at 0.7272 on expectations that the RBNZ will not cut rates anytime soon. NZD/USD is stable at 0.7277.