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Majors, US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook September 5-9

The beginning of September provided turbulence and some unexpected market reactions. Rate decisions in Australia, Canada the euro-zone, stand out in the first full week of September. These are the highlights of this week. Join us for our weekly outlook as we explore these top events.

U.S. monthly employment figures disappointed as growth slowed more than expected in August, following two straight months of strong gains. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 while expected to rise by 180000 jobs. Wage growth was lukewarm and the Unemployment rate edged up to 4.9% from 4.8% in the previous month. The slowdown in August employment could diminish chances for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this month. Will this trend continue?  Let’s start,

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  1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 4:30. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Kuroda stated at the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy symposium  in Jackson Hole that he won’t hesitate to boost monetary stimulus if required, saying there is room for additional easing in the BOJ’s package of asset buying, monetary-base guidance, and negative interest rates. BOJ’s Governor reassured that the bank will make the best use of the policy scheme in order to achieve the price stability target. Volatility is expected.
  2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Australia’s central bank cut rates by a quarter point to an all-time low of 1.5% in August, the second rate decrease was done to move the economy away from deflation and restrain a too-strong currency. This move was widely expected. Economists anticipate more easing measures in the coming months with a 68% chance for another cut is December.
  3. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 16:00. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index declined in July to 55.5 from the robust reading of 56.5 posted in the previous month. Nontheless, confidence in the outlook remained strong due to an increase in the orders component for the month. Likewise, business activity remained strong at 59.3 from 59.5 in June and New orders picked up to 60.3 from 59.9. The main decline was registered in the employment index falling to 51.4 from 52.7 previously. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is expected to reach 55.4 this time.
  4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. Australia’s economic growth picked up  in the first quarter  amid strong export volumes and household spending. Gross domestic product expanded 1.1% compared with a revised 0.7%  in the last quarter of 2015. The reading was better than the 0.6% rise economists expected. However, the data  also showed that  Australia  remains in falling terms of trade falling resources investment  and flat wages. Meanwhile, on a yearly base, growth  accelerated  from 2.9% to 3.1%, its fastest pace in almost four years.
  5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Canada’s central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 0.5% in July. The bank cut rates twice last year in an attempt to boost the economy weakened by low oil prices. The economy has improved since then as the low loonie  helped manufacturers and exporters. The Central bank acknowledged that the  positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Economists do not expect a change in monetary policy anytime soon.
  6. ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. The European Central Bank kept rates at 0% in July but left the door open for further stimulus measures in case Britain’s vote to leave the European Union starts to weigh on the region’s economy. However, president, Mario Draghi said it will take some time before the bank could assess whether the situation requires a change in monetary policy. Analysts expect the ECB will act in the fall or winter to extend its bond-buying stimulus program past its expiry date of March 2017.
  7. US Unemployment rate: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits inched up by 2000 last week to 263,000. This is the 78 consecutive week that jobless claims remain below the 300,000 level, indicating expansion in the US employment market. The four-week moving average declined by 1,000 to 263,000 from last week’s unrevised average of 264,000.
  8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00. US Crude stocks increased by 2.3 million barrels last week. Crude futures rose as much 11% in August which may compel the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce their output in September. Analysts expected stocks to rise by 1.1 million barrels. This unexpected trend cast a shadow over the oil industry in the coming months.
  9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy lost 31,200 jobs in July amid a sharp decline in full time jobs. The reading was contrary to analysts’ forecast of a 10,100 job gain. The unemployment rate inched up to 6.9% from 6.8% in June, in line with market forecast. The number of full-time workers declined by 71,400  the biggest one-month drop since October 2011. Meanwhile, part-time jobs increased by 40,200 in July.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer