Home USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 5-9 2016 outlook

The Canadian dollar enjoyed a banner week, as USD/CAD  plunged 270 points.  This week’s highlights are GDP and Employment Change.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar jumped as the Canadian Employment Change was much stronger than expected. As well, the unemployment rate dropped below 7.0%. In the US, the economy continues to expand at a brisk clip.  Preliminary GDP sparkled in Q3 with a gain of 3.2%, beating the estimate of 3.0%. Consumer Confidence data easily beat expectations. Employment numbers were mixed, as Nonfarm Payrolls met expectations, but wages declined.

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USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:


  1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s trade deficit jumped to C$4.1 billion in September, well above the forecast of C$1.7 billion. The deficit is expected to narrow to C$2.1 billion in the October report.
  2. Ivey PMI: Tuesday, 15:00. The index has posted two straight readings close to the 60-level, pointing to strong industry expansion. Little change is expected in the November report, with an estimate of 59.9 points.
  3. Overnight Rate:  Wednesday, 15:00.  The BoC has held the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% since July. The BoC is not expected to change the rate this week.
  4. Housing Starts: Thursday, 13:15. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. In October, the indicator dropped to 193 thousand, within expectations. Little change is forecast for the November release.
  5. Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. Building Permits tends to show strong fluctuation, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. The indicator posted a sharp decline of 7.0% in September, worst than expected. Will the indicator rebound in October?
  6. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. The September reading posted a small gain of 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month. This figure matched the estimate.

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3520 and touched a high of 1.3522. The pair then reversed directions, sliding to a low of 1.3249, as support held firm at 1.3219 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at the round number of 1.3254.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom

With USD/CAD posting sharp gains, we begin at lower levels:

1.3672 has held in resistance since February.

1.3551 has strengthened in resistance following sharp losses by USD/CAD.

1.3433 was the high point in October.

1.3351 is an immediate resistance line.

1.3219 is a weak support line. It could see action early in the week.

1.3124 is next.

1.3003 is protecting the symbolic 1.30 level. It was last tested in mid-October.

1.2922 is next.

1.2804 is the final support line for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make a rate move this week, in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to raise rates for the first time in a year. This monetary divergence could translate into broad gains for the US dollar. As well, the US economy is considerably stronger than its northern neighbor, which is bullish for the greenback.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.