Home AUD/USD Forecast Mar. 27-31

AUD/USD  reversed directions last week and lost 100 points.  The pair closed just above the 0.76 line.  There are only 3 events next week.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, Fed Chair Yellen missed the chance to move the dollar, as she sent out a dovish message  after the rate hike. Unemployment Claims were unexpectedly weak, soaring to 261 thousand. In Australia, the RBA minutes were upbeat about the economy, but expressed concern about risks in the housing market.

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AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. RBA Assistant Guy Debelle: Monday, 22:00.  Debelle will speak at an event in Sydney.  A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  2. HIA New Home Sales: Thursday, 00:00.  This indicator provides a snapshot of the strength of the housing sector. In January, the indicator disappointed with sharp decline of 2.2%.
  3. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 00:30. The indicator slipped to 0.2%, short of expectations. This was the indicator’s weakest reading in 7 months.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.7705 and climbed to a high of 0.7749, testing resistance at 0.7741(discussed last week). It was all downhill after that, as the pair dropped to a low of 0.7604. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7605.

Live chart of AUD/USD:

AUDUSD  chart by  TradingView

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.8066.

0.7938 is next. This line has held in resistance since May 2015.

0.7835 was the high point in April 2016.

0.7741 was a cap in February.

AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7605, which is protecting the 0.76 line.

0.7513 is providing support. It was a cushion in April 2015.

0.7429 is next.

0.7311 marked a low point in November.

0.7223 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on AUD/USD

In the US, the Fed has sent clear signals that it is projecting two more rate hikes this year. This has disappointed the markets and lowered investors’ appetite for risk.  President Trump has failed to pass a key health care bill and remains embroiled in scandals.

Our latest podcast is titled  Murky markets and further Fed fallout

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Safe trading!

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.