Home AUD/USD Forecast July 31-Aug. 4

AUD/USD  posted gains for a third straight week. The pair closed at  0.7981, its highest weekly close since May 2015. The major event this week is the RBA Monetary Statement and Retail Sales.  Here  is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, CPI posted a gain of 0.2%, short of the estimate. In the US, Advance GDP posted a strong gain in 2.6% in the second quarter, above the estimate of 2.5%. Political risk continues to rise, as Trump’s failure to pass a healthcare bill weighed on the US dollar.

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AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. HIA New Home Sales: Sunday, 21:00. This housing indicator provides a snapshot of the housing sector. The indicator picked up in May, with a strong gain of 1.1%. Will the upward trend continue in June?
  2. Private Sector Credit: Sunday, 21:30. This indicator has posted two straight gains of 0.4%, and no change is expected in the upcoming release.
  3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 19:30. This manufacturing index continues to point to expansion and came in at 55.0 in June, slightly above the estimate. Will the indicator continue to pick up in the July report?
  4. RBA Rate Statement:  Tuesday, 00:30. The RBA will release its monthly benchmark rate. The bank has held rates at 1.50% since July 2016, and no changed is expected.
  5. Commodity Prices:  Tuesday, 2:30. Commodity Prices has been slowing, and came in at 25.0% in June. Will the indicator continue to soften in July?
  6. Building Approvals:  Tuesday, 21:30. This indicator tends to show sharp fluctuation, making accurate estimates a tricky task. In May, the indicator declined 5.6%, well below the estimate of -1.2%. The markets are expecting a rebound in June, with an estimate of 1.1%.
  7. AIG Services Index:  Wednesday, 19:30. The index continues to produce readings above the 50-point threshold, which indicates expansion. In June, the indicator came in at 54.8 points.
  8. Trade Balance:  Wednesday, 21:30. Australia’s trade surplus improved to A$2.47 billion in May, easily beating the estimate of A$1.00 billion. The estimate for the June surplus is A$1.77 billion.
  9. RBA Monetary Policy Statement:  Thursday, 21:30. This statement is released on a quarterly basis. Analysts will be combing through the report, looking for clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  10. Retail Sales:  Thursday, 21:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and should be treated as a market-mover. In May, the indicator slowed to 0.6%, beating the estimate of 0.2%. The indicator is expected to soften to 0.2% in June.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.7925 and touched a low of 0.7778 in mid-week. The pair then reversed directions and climbed to a high of 0.8066, testing resistance at 0.8031 (discussed last week). The pair was unable to consolidate at these levels and closed the week at 0.7981.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.8392.

0.8295 is next.

0.8163 has held in resistance since May 2015.

0.8031 was tested in resistance last week. It is protecting the symbolic 0.80 level.

0.7938 is next.

0.7835 was the high point in April 2016.

0.7749 was an important cap in March.

0.7611 is the next support level.

0.7513 is the final support line for now.

I am neutral on AUD/USD

The RBA is expected to maintain rates, while the Fed may also decide not to raise rates in December if inflation does not improve. The US economy is in good shape, but Trump’s antagonistic behavior continues to make investors nervous.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.