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GBP/USD Forecast August 21-25 2017

GBP/USD remained pressured once gain  even though some data points were OK. The upcoming week features the  second read of GDP among other events. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK inflation data missed expectations, pushing back any potential rate hike in the UK. On the other hand, there  were  encouraging signs from the wage data and also retail sales. Fresh USD strength weighed on the pound early in the week. However, a risk-off sentiment and worries about delays in Brexit negotiations weighed on the pound. In the US, politics and the Fed minutes hurt the dollar, while retail sales supported it. Nevertheless, it seems that Brexit hurts more than Trump.

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GBP/USD daily chart with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:01. House prices are cooling down in the UK and this is gaining more attention. The Rightmove indicator showed a modest rise of 0.1% in July.
  2. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Monday, 8:30. The level of borrowing by the government stood at a relatively high level of 6.3 billion pounds, worse than expected, showing a growing hole in the government’s coffers. A small rise of 0.4 billion is expected.
  3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday, 10:00. This Confederation of British Industry’s survey of 550 manufacturers fell short of expectations with a score of only 10 points, a drop from 16 beforehand. A score of 10 is projected once again.
  4. GDP (second estimate): Thursday, 8:30. According to the first release for Q2, the economy grew by 0.3% q/q, better than 0.2% seen in Q1, but much slower than the growth levels seen in 2016. This growth level will probably be confirmed in the second read.
  5. Business Investment: Thursday, 8:30. Business investment feeds into future growth and is measured on a quarterly basis alongside the GDP report. Investment has not been that inspiring of late. A drop of 0.1% is expected.
  6. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 10:00. Contrary to other indicators, this measure of the economy has been upbeat, jumping to 22 points in July. A drop could be seen now: a score of 15 points is forecast.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar started the week under  1.30 and challenged 1.2975 (mentioned last week). It then drifted to lower ground.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.35 was the post-Brexit high and remains the top level. It is followed by 1.3370 which capped the pair several times in 2016.

The 2017 high (so far) of 1.3270 is the next barrier. 1.3120 served as resistance twice in the summer of 2017 and remains important.

Below, 1.3050 is a double top as seen during the spring of 2017. 1.2975 awaits on the lower side of 1.30.

Further below, 1.2890 separated ranges on the way down. It is followed by 1.2820 and 1.2775.

I remain bearish on GBP/USD

The data released recently confirms the weakness in the data point that matters most: inflfation. It pushes any potential rate hike further away. The US dollar has its own troubles but the overall UK economy looks weaker.

Our latest podcast is titled  Missing: inflation and a stock market crash

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Safe trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.