- The short-term technical picture looks gloomy as the recovery stalled
- Long-term forecasts are optimistic.
Bitcoin has lost nearly 5% from the peak reached on Sunday; however, it is still about 8% higher from the new low of 2018 touched on December 7. The cryptocurrency market managed a short-term recovery, but crypto bulls are losing their enthusiasm amid doom and gloom sentiments.
Bitcoin’s short-term technical picture
On the intraday charts, BTC/USD dropped below the middle line of Bollinger Band (1-hour chart) and found support at $3,460 created by SMA100 (1-hour). This support is closely followed by $3,440, strengthened by the lower line of the above said Bollinger Band and SMA50 (1-hour chart). A sustainable move below will trigger new sell orders and push the price towards $3,300 with the recent low of $3,211 next in the line.
On the upside, we need to see a sustainable recovery above $3,605 (the lower border of Bollinger Band weekly and the upper border of Bollinger Band 1-hour). This development will reduce the immediate bearish pressure and allow the crypto crowd some breathing space.
The longer-term picture looks better
Bobby Lee, the co-founder of BTCC, emphasizes that it is not the first time, Bitcoin loses nearly 90% of its value; however, if history is any guide. We shall see a strong recovery coming.
“If history repeats perfectly, then the current bear market for #Bitcoin would bottom out at $2,500 next month, in Jan 2019. And then the next rally would start in late 2020, peak out in Dec 2021 at $333,000, and then crash back down to $41,000 on Jan 2023,” he wrote in his Twitter account.
BTC/USD, 1-hour chart
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