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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Stuck Between The 100 and 200-Day SMAs

  • Bitcoin price has partly recovered from last week’s sell-off.
  • BTC is consolidating as it hovers between the 100- and 200-day SMAs.
  • Overcoming the $44,000 resistance is crucial to bitcoin starting a rally to possible new record highs.

Bitcoin price has recovered some of the losses that occurred to the market’s knee-jerk reaction to China’s crackdown on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on Friday September 24. This is an indication that the Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have absorbed the news as long-term investors use the dip to accumulate more BTC.

However, a clear bullish rally may have to wait to see how the crypto market participants react to the outcome of the infrastructure bill whose debate is ongoing with the final vote expected on September 30.

Bitcoin Price In A Sideways Price Action

Bitcoin price prediction is currently neutral price has been hovering between the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $41,495 and the 200-day SMA at $45,725 since September 20. This is a suggestion that the bulls are getting in on the dips as bears sell the rallies.

The flattening moving averages and the horizontal movement of the MACD close to the neutral line accentuate BTC/USD price sideways market action.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

Bitcoin price Daily Chart
Bitcoin price Daily Chart. Source: Tradingview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is exchanging hands around  $41,982 on most crypto trading platforms and appears to be battling immediate resistance around the $43,452 zone.

A daily closure above this level will see the big crypto rise to tag the $44,000 psychological level. A clear bullish breakout will be achieved when BTC rises above this level. If this happens, Bitcoin price may rise to tag the 200-day SMA at $45,725 or the 50-day SMA at $47,362.

Before that, Bitcoin price has to overcome selling pressure around the $44,00 seller congestion zone. According to the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) Model by IntoTheBlock, this resistance is within the $42, 961 and $44,223 price range where approximately 863,540 BTC were previously bought by roughly 756,020 addresses.

These investors might want to break-even which may curtail any attempts to push Bitcoin beyond this  level.

Bitcoin IOMAP Chart

Bitcoin IOMAP Chart
Bitcoin IOMAP Chart by IntoTheBlock

On the flip side, the bellwether cryptocurrency will favour the bears if the BTC price falls below the immediate support around $41,495 embraced by the 100-day SMA. If this happens, Bitcoin will fall towards the $38,493 support wall.

The IOMAP above shows that the path with little resistance is downwards. Therefore, the bulls have to keep the BTC price above the 100-day SMA to avoid any further losses.

This pessimistic outlook is validated by the position of the MACD below the zero line in the negative region. In addition, the position of the Stochastic RSI at 37.64 is an indication that the bears are in control of the BTC price.

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Nancy Lubale

Nancy Lubale

Crypto Analyst and Technical Writer Nancy is a successful crypto analyst and content writer with many years of writing experience finance and blockchain fields. Nancy has been producing quality content for websites in the cryptocurrency industry including Krptotrends. She is a Certified Cryptocurrency Expert (CCE) from Blockchain Council.