British Pound Outlook – August 31 – September 4 2009

After a bad week, the British Pound expects PMI and housing figures this week that will move it. Here’s an outlook for 6 key British events, and a technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Daily forex chart with important lines inside:

GBP/USD lost more than 200 pips in a bad week. One of the biggest blows came from the  Prelim Business Investment that made a free fall of over 10% in the last quarter. The week starts with a bank holiday in Britain on Monday, but after the summer vacation ends, indicators start kicking in. Let’s review them:

1. Halifax HPI:  HBOS, the troubled Scottish bank, releases this house price index during the week. The exact release date isn’t known yet. It’s importance comes from the base of this index – the bank’s internal data. After rising by 1.1% last month,  Halifax HPI is predicted to rise more modestly – by 0.5% this time.
2. Manufacturing PMI: After 5 consecutive months of surprises,  Manufacturing PMI made the biggest surprise last time, by crossing the 50 point mark which means expansion. Expectations are positive this time – a rise from 50.8 to 51.5 is expected. Released on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT.
3. Net Lending to Individuals: This figure indicates the change in the total value of new credit that is issued to consumers. Lending has squeezed in the last two months, going as low as 0.4 billion. It isn’t expected to change this time. Note that’s is published at the same time as the Manufacturing PMI, thus it will be overshadowed. So only a big surprise will have impact.
4. Mortgage Approvals: Also the mortgage approvals are released at the same time, Tuesday 8:30 GMT, so they will probably have very little impact. After meeting expectations by standing at 48K last time, mortgage approvals are predicted to rise to 51K.
5. Construction PMI: This housing figure has it’s own space, on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Contrary to other sectors, construction purchasing managers have been more pessimistic. Construction PMI is still under 50 – still showing contraction. After rising to 47 points, it’s predicted to advance to 48.1 this time.
6. Services PMI: This is the complementary figure for the Manufacturing PMI. Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT, this strong figure is expected to advance from 51.9 to 53.2, and to close 4 months of expansion – above 50. The services sector is doing better than manufacturing.

On such a busy week in the US, GBP/USD will be strongly moved by American indicators which are published all week long. Non-Farm Payrolls are published on Friday, when no British release is due.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound had a very bad week. Starting at around 1.65, it fell below the 1.62 support line, but didn’t go very far, only down to 1.6150 during Wednesday. It bounced back off this false break when the dollar collapsed across the board on near the end of the week, closing at 1.6270.

Looking down, I’ve updated the support line to 1.6150. It’s more safe than 1.62. Further downwards, 1.58 is a strong support line. If GBP/USD makes a big and real break down, it’ll aim for 1.58. It can happen this week…

Looking up, 1.6660 remains an ultra-strong resistance line that will be hard to break. If the dollar collapses, GBP/USD will aim for 1.70, which was the short lived break upwards about a month ago. Above that, 1.74 is in the distance, but quite far out.

In last week’s British Pound outlook, I had a negative sentiment, but I didn’t expect any major breakouts. I’m pleased to say that I’ve been correct 🙂

Looking forward, my bearish sentiment remains. This time, I do believe that the end of the vacation and the very busy week will enable a serious breakout, probably downwards. A break upwards isn’t out of the question this week as well – a dollar collapse has been seen on the first week of August.

For a broad overview of this week’s events, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.